The West Virginia primary results are about 40% counted, and it sure looks like the so called "experts" got it wrong once again. We got their wishful thinking instead of a rational analysis of the situation. In the GOP senate primary, Blankenship is running third with only about 20% of the vote. At the moment, Morrisey leads with over 34% and Jenkins is second with just under 30%. For the last ten days, however, the pundits have been telling us that Blankenship had "momentum" and that he had pulled into the lead in this race. That's not just wrong, it's completely and amazingly wrong. But here's the point: Blankenship just spent a year in jail in connection with an explosion at a coal mine his company owned. He still disputes his conviction, but it would have made him a damaged candidate who would be the most likely GOP nominee to lose to Democrat senator Joe Manchin. The pundits wanted a weak Republican to run, so they promoted Blankenship as a phenomenon. The voters, however, didn't fall for that ploy.
It is worth noting that Manchin won his primary against an unknown opponent with only 70% of the vote. If 30% of West Virginia Democrats want someone other than Manchin, it is hard to see how he can survive in November against either Morrisey or Jenkins. It may cause dismay for the pundits, but this seat ought to be rated "leans Republican" at a minimum.
It is worth noting that Manchin won his primary against an unknown opponent with only 70% of the vote. If 30% of West Virginia Democrats want someone other than Manchin, it is hard to see how he can survive in November against either Morrisey or Jenkins. It may cause dismay for the pundits, but this seat ought to be rated "leans Republican" at a minimum.
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