The Des Moines Register just took its first poll of likely Democrat caucus goers in 2020 to see who they prefer as the Dem nominee for president. It's a joke to poll at this point. Basically, it's a poll of name recognition. Here are the results which prove what I'm saying:
Biden 32%
Sanders 19%
O'Rourke 11%
Warren 8%
Harris 5%
There were others mentioned, but they all got less than 5%.
Biden and Sanders are the only ones with national name recognition. Biden was VP, so he gets a third of the vote. Sanders was a failed candidate in 2016, so he gets a fifth of the vote. O'Rourke just went through an election where he got more coverage than any other senate candidate across the country. Of course he lost, but it was still enough for him to pick up a tenth of the vote. I guess Warren gets votes from fake native Americans.
The thing to remember is that Joe Biden has run in the Iowa caucuses twice previously. He's never gotten even 2% of the vote. In Iowa for Joe Biden, to know him is to not vote for him. By the 2020 caucus (if he even runs), Biden will no doubt work his magic and make his support vanish.
One last note: 14 months before the 2016 caucuses, Donald Trump had minimal support in Iowa. 14 months before the 2008 caucuses, Barack Obama had minimal support in Iowa as well. The same was true in 1992 with Clinton. George W. Bush did have support in Iowa 14 months before the 2000 caucuses, but that was mainly because of his name and his family.
Who knows, maybe next week the Des Moines Register will poll Iowa voters as to the likely winner of the Super Bowl in 2025.
Biden 32%
Sanders 19%
O'Rourke 11%
Warren 8%
Harris 5%
There were others mentioned, but they all got less than 5%.
Biden and Sanders are the only ones with national name recognition. Biden was VP, so he gets a third of the vote. Sanders was a failed candidate in 2016, so he gets a fifth of the vote. O'Rourke just went through an election where he got more coverage than any other senate candidate across the country. Of course he lost, but it was still enough for him to pick up a tenth of the vote. I guess Warren gets votes from fake native Americans.
The thing to remember is that Joe Biden has run in the Iowa caucuses twice previously. He's never gotten even 2% of the vote. In Iowa for Joe Biden, to know him is to not vote for him. By the 2020 caucus (if he even runs), Biden will no doubt work his magic and make his support vanish.
One last note: 14 months before the 2016 caucuses, Donald Trump had minimal support in Iowa. 14 months before the 2008 caucuses, Barack Obama had minimal support in Iowa as well. The same was true in 1992 with Clinton. George W. Bush did have support in Iowa 14 months before the 2000 caucuses, but that was mainly because of his name and his family.
Who knows, maybe next week the Des Moines Register will poll Iowa voters as to the likely winner of the Super Bowl in 2025.
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