According to a column by John Podhoretz, there are over 40 Democrats who are exploring a run for president in 2020. He predicts there will be at least 20 declared candidates. That is a recipe for chaos.
Remember, under the rules adopted by the DNC after Hillary rigged the process against Bernie in 2016, there are no more super-delegates able to vote on the first convention ballot. Further, all convention delegates are apportioned among candidates based solely upon their proportion of the vote in the primary/caucus. Imagine if the results in the first caucus in Iowa have no candidate getting more than 25% with four having between 15 and 25 percent. They will each get about the same number of delegates. Then in New Hampshire's primary imagine that there are again no big winners and a different candidate leads the pack (actually it's bigger than a pack.) Maybe four other candidates get delegates. As the process moves forward, there is a distinct risk that no one pulls out far enough ahead to clinch a first ballot victory. There won't be 20 candidates at the convention, but there easily could be three who each have more than 25% of the votes. In other words, there could easily be no first ballot winner. The race would then go to the second ballot for which the hundreds of super-delegates could vote and swing one or another candidate to victory. It would be a big victory for the party bosses. It would also be a recipe for a split between old line bosses and ultra left party activists.
Remember, under the rules adopted by the DNC after Hillary rigged the process against Bernie in 2016, there are no more super-delegates able to vote on the first convention ballot. Further, all convention delegates are apportioned among candidates based solely upon their proportion of the vote in the primary/caucus. Imagine if the results in the first caucus in Iowa have no candidate getting more than 25% with four having between 15 and 25 percent. They will each get about the same number of delegates. Then in New Hampshire's primary imagine that there are again no big winners and a different candidate leads the pack (actually it's bigger than a pack.) Maybe four other candidates get delegates. As the process moves forward, there is a distinct risk that no one pulls out far enough ahead to clinch a first ballot victory. There won't be 20 candidates at the convention, but there easily could be three who each have more than 25% of the votes. In other words, there could easily be no first ballot winner. The race would then go to the second ballot for which the hundreds of super-delegates could vote and swing one or another candidate to victory. It would be a big victory for the party bosses. It would also be a recipe for a split between old line bosses and ultra left party activists.
No comments:
Post a Comment