At the moment, the world's largest economy is in the USA. China is in second place. India is growing much more rapidly than either the US or China. If current trends continue (always a big IF), these three countries will dwarf the rest of the world in just two decades. Imagine that. In the 19th century the world revolved around Europe. Britain, France, Russia and then Germany and Italy built major empires that controlled much of the globe. Economic and military power was centered in northern Europe. By the 20th century, the USA had taken over as the world's largest economy and since World War II as the world's pre-eminent military power (although there was an obvious struggle with the USSR during the Cold War.) China made its move to growth some 35 years ago when it got past doctrinaire Communism and began using a state controlled capitalist system controlled by the Communist Party. India also abandoned its socialist past and moved towards a much more capitalist system. As a result, both China and India have achieved impressive economic growth and have moved literally hundreds of millions of citizens out of poverty.
Where will things go in the future? If you read most articles about this, the majority talk about China surpassing the USA as the world's largest economy and super-power in the next 20-30 years. This misses a key point, however. China has gone out of its way to sabotage itself with a demographic policy that will cause chaos in the Chinese economy in the not too distant future. That policy was, of course, China's "one-child" policy. For about 40 years, Chinese law has done all it could to limit most Chinese couples to just one child. It has slowed population growth in amazing fashion, and it will soon lead to a reduction and major increase in age of the Chinese population. In other words, China will have fewer young workers and many more old retirees who will need assistance. When many work to support a few, the system works. When only few work to support many, the system collapses. That is what has happened to the American Social Security system. It is now happening across China.
India, however, never cut back on its population growth. At the moment, India and China have about the same number of people. Soon, India will be growing while China will be shrinking. That gives India the basis to become a true world power again.
Where will things go in the future? If you read most articles about this, the majority talk about China surpassing the USA as the world's largest economy and super-power in the next 20-30 years. This misses a key point, however. China has gone out of its way to sabotage itself with a demographic policy that will cause chaos in the Chinese economy in the not too distant future. That policy was, of course, China's "one-child" policy. For about 40 years, Chinese law has done all it could to limit most Chinese couples to just one child. It has slowed population growth in amazing fashion, and it will soon lead to a reduction and major increase in age of the Chinese population. In other words, China will have fewer young workers and many more old retirees who will need assistance. When many work to support a few, the system works. When only few work to support many, the system collapses. That is what has happened to the American Social Security system. It is now happening across China.
India, however, never cut back on its population growth. At the moment, India and China have about the same number of people. Soon, India will be growing while China will be shrinking. That gives India the basis to become a true world power again.
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