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Sunday, December 9, 2018

Could the Protests Bring Down The French Government?

There were widespread protests across France yesterday, but they were centered again in Paris.  An estimated 200,000 people marched in the French capital, most wearing their yellow vests.  All sorts of tourist sites were closed.  There was damage across the capital.  There were about 1700 people arrested.  And remember, this huge protest went ahead even after the French government of President Macron completely threw in the towel and rescinded the tax increases on fuel that he started the protests.

The enduring nature of the protests leads to the question of whether or not they will actually bring down the Macron government.  That seemed unlikely, but the possibility of it happening is growing.  Recent polls in France show two - thirds of the French people support the protesters.  Meanwhile, Macron's job performance is rated acceptable or better by only 23% of poll respondents.  Macron no longer seems to have any base of support.

In France, the President is elected for a fixed term, so Macron can't be defeated by a vote in the legislature the way that such a thing could happen, for example, in the UK.  Macron can try to hang on through the crisis.  If the protests continue to have widespread public support and a strong outpouring on the streets, Macron may have no choice but to resign.  Should he do so, the President of the French Senate becomes Acting President and a new election is held.  Because of the nature of the protests, it seems possible that in a new election Marine LePen (who came in second in the last election) could possibly win election.  That would be more of an assault on the ruling elites than even the election of Donald Trump in the USA. 

It's hard to predict now what will happen.  The one thing we know:  all bets are off in France.

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