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Tuesday, December 4, 2018

Polls As Predictors

There's a poll out today from Harvard/Harris that asked Democrat and independent respondents to select the candidate for whom they would vote in a Democrat primary in 2020.  At this point, the poll is silly, but it is still rather funny to see the results.  The top two vote getters are Biden and Sanders, but there's not overwhelming support for either of these two old geezers.  What struck me was that Beto O'Rourke, the guy who ran an lost for a senate seat in Texas, gets the support of 9% of voters.  That's three times what Elizabeth Warren gets and four times the support for Kamala Harris.  It must gall Warren that after years in the senate she can't even beat a guy who served a few terms in the House and who no one had even heard of (outside of El Paso Texas) until a few months ago.  The poll should also make clear to Harris that while she has some media supporters, she has virtually no support among the electorate.

Given the Biden/Sanders lead, maybe the media needs to come up with a new term instead of "running" for office.  Maybe "running" could be declared racist since it reminds people of slaves who had to run away for freedom before the Civil War.  In honor of Biden/Sanders the new term could be "limping" for office.  They could probably manage that.

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