A federal judge in Texas has ruled Obamacare unconstitutional. It's not a surprising ruling. Simply put, in 2012, the Supreme Court found that the Obamacare requirement that people buy health insurance could not be supported by Congress' power to regulate interstate commerce. SCOTUS said at the time that the power to regulate commerce did not include the power to compel people to engage in commerce. The Supreme Court then said, however, that the penalty for failing to buy insurance was a "tax" and that Congress could enact Obamacare under its taxing power. When the tax reform legislation was passed last December, the penalty for failing to buy insurance was repealed. That means Obamacare no longer falls under the taxing power of the federal government. The judge in Texas has now held that as a result of removing the "tax", Obamacare is now unconstitutional.
One additional important part of the new ruling is a finding that because the individual mandate is such an important an integral part of Obamacare, striking it down as unconstitutional results in the entire law falling as unconstitutional.
Obamacare is going to stay in place while this decision is appealed to the 5th Circuit and then likely to the Supreme Court. In view of what the Supreme Court held in 2012, it seems likely that the 5th Circuit will affirm this decision. After all, the Supreme Court said that but for the taxing power, Obamacare would be unconstitutional.
It's less clear what will happen in the Supreme Court. I doubt that the Court will revise its view that absent a "tax" for failing to meet the individual mandate that portion of Obamacare is unconstitutional. What SCOTUS might do, however, is decide that even though the mandate falls, the remainder of the law stays. There remain five justices on the Court who previously bent over backwards to find a way to keep Obamacare in place. They may do that again.
Congress could easily pass legislation to remedy the problems with Obamacare. I doubt that will happen. The Democrats in the House are unlikely to vote for any plan that would be acceptable to the GOP and the President. We will probably just see a lot of screaming but no real efforts to remedy the problem.
One additional important part of the new ruling is a finding that because the individual mandate is such an important an integral part of Obamacare, striking it down as unconstitutional results in the entire law falling as unconstitutional.
Obamacare is going to stay in place while this decision is appealed to the 5th Circuit and then likely to the Supreme Court. In view of what the Supreme Court held in 2012, it seems likely that the 5th Circuit will affirm this decision. After all, the Supreme Court said that but for the taxing power, Obamacare would be unconstitutional.
It's less clear what will happen in the Supreme Court. I doubt that the Court will revise its view that absent a "tax" for failing to meet the individual mandate that portion of Obamacare is unconstitutional. What SCOTUS might do, however, is decide that even though the mandate falls, the remainder of the law stays. There remain five justices on the Court who previously bent over backwards to find a way to keep Obamacare in place. They may do that again.
Congress could easily pass legislation to remedy the problems with Obamacare. I doubt that will happen. The Democrats in the House are unlikely to vote for any plan that would be acceptable to the GOP and the President. We will probably just see a lot of screaming but no real efforts to remedy the problem.
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