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Thursday, March 12, 2020

Corona Crazies

As the nation seems to panic before our eyes, the coronavirus is pretty much where it was the prior day except for in Iran.  In the last 24 hours according to the database maintained by Johns Hopkins, there have been about 2000 new cases worldwide.  That's less than in previous days.  There are also about 100 more deaths worldwide.  More than half of the new cases and three-quarters of the new deaths have come in Iran.  We don't know exactly what is happening in Iran, but reports say that the Islamic republic is not doing much at all to combat the spread of the virus.  There are even reports that the Ayatollah called the virus a blessing.  We really don't know, though, what is true.

Panic and phony stories abound.  Today, I was in a deli at lunch to take out some food.  A woman was telling the deli owner that she had heard that the schools in our town were going to close tomorrow for two weeks because there are 19 students from the high school in the local hospital with coronavirus.  Being incurably nosy, I told her that her information was wrong.  I told her that according to the figures released by the CDC there were only three cases of the virus in Connecticut and that none were in our town.  Then I told her that the virus wouldn't put children into the hospital since it didn't affect kids in a serious way.  She told me that she was sure she was correct since her sister had told her the news.  I left it there since I didn't want to cause a scene.  Still, the idea that an average middle aged woman would believe that there were 19 cases of kids in the hospital when there were really none says a great deal about the level of panic affecting our country.

The markets today tanked in a way that hasn't been seen in many decades.  Organizations like the NHL and the NBA are cancelling their entire business for the foreseeable future.  People are being severely affected.  For example, I know a man who drives an airport limousine every day.  He was told this morning that with the air travel cutbacks due to the disease, he would have no work going forward.  People who work in theaters, restaurants, convention halls, hotels, airlines and many other places are going to pay a major price for the panic.  Hopefully, it will just last a month at most, but there's no way to tell if that will be the case.  The worst thing is that we are doing this to ourselves.

A decade ago, we had the swine flu epidemic.  In the 2009 swine flu pandemic, there were between 700 million and 1.4 billion cases worldwide.  That's right approximately a billion people got the disease.  There were an estimated 150,000 - 575,000 dead worldwide from the disease.  That's a lower mortality rate than from the current corona virus, but it is an immense number nevertheless.  We had something like 20,000 dead in the USA alone.  Do you remember when the NBA and NHL cancelled their seasons due to the swine flu?  Do you recall the stock markets crashing as all travel related companies melted down?  Do you remember non-stop coverage of what President Obama did to fight the swine flu?  Of course not, since it didn't happen.  Obama did basically nothing.  Life went on and the disease spread across the USA since there was -- like now -- no good way to actually stop the spread.  We just didn't let the disease stop us from our daily activities.

The real question we need to ask ourselves is will there be anyone who will avoid death at the hands of the coronavirus as a result of the current panic?  I doubt it.  Everyone needs to move away from panic.  It is not needed and not helpful.

UPDATE:  The governor of CT just announced that there are 6 cases of the virus in CT.  One is a child in another district in Fairfield county -- but not in my town.  That's it.  Six cases; no deaths.  Indeed, no serious cases yet.  So what is the reaction here in Fairfield County?  Every school district has closed all the schools for the rest of this week and all of next.  One child is sick in Stratford and the whole county goes down.  It's public health hysteria run amok.

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