There was quite a battle among Democrats yesterday in the Super Tuesday states. There were four strong campaigns vying for support, and that contest generated a lot of news and contacts of individual voters by the campaigns. So how enthused were the Democrats with their choices.
One way to answer is to look at the exit polls. Voters were asked if they were satisfied with their choices or if they would prefer to have voted for someone else. To me, that really doesn't tell us much. The people who voted are either those who always vote or those who were satisfied with the choice. Neither of those groups fall into the basket of people who frequently don't bother to vote unless a candidate really excites them. A candidate who can get frequent non-voters to come to the polls is one who can win big.
I think a better way to look at this question is to consider the turnout. How many people did the candidate actually draw to the polls. Here are a few facts:
There are over 16 million registered voters in Texas. Fewer than a quarter of them went to the polls to vote yesterday. That's not a big wave of enthusiasm.
The total number of votes cast for the Democrat candidates was LESS than the number who voted for President Trump in the Republican primary. Trump, of course, had no real opposition, so there was no reason to go to vote for him. Think about that for a moment. The votes for Trump were ceremonial at best. Trump didn't run a real campaign in the Lone Star State. The Democrats fought hard in the state, however. Mike Bloomberg spent over $40 million dollars on TV ads in Texas alone. Biden, Sanders and Warren all held rallies in the state. And after all that, the four Democrat candidates together couldn't get more votes than the President got himself.
The Democrats did draw more voters than they did in 2016 when it was Hillary and Bernie alone. That primary wasn't even close, however. Also, unlike 2020, the 2016 primary campaign in Texas was mild.
The Republicans drew fewer voters than 4 years ago when Ted Cruz won. Cruz, of course, is a senator from Texas, so he was a major draw of voters. Also, in 2016, the Republican primary was contested, unlike 2020.
One last fact: Texas is not the only state where Trump got more votes yesterday than all the Democrats combined. The same was true in Alabama, Arkansas and Tennessee for example.
So what does this mean? Right now, the enthusiasm is for Trump. His supporters came out to vote in meaningless primaries just to show how much they support him. There seems to be no counter swell of support for the Dems. If Dem support for Joe Biden continues to be unenthusiastic moving forward, November should result in a total Trump victory.
One way to answer is to look at the exit polls. Voters were asked if they were satisfied with their choices or if they would prefer to have voted for someone else. To me, that really doesn't tell us much. The people who voted are either those who always vote or those who were satisfied with the choice. Neither of those groups fall into the basket of people who frequently don't bother to vote unless a candidate really excites them. A candidate who can get frequent non-voters to come to the polls is one who can win big.
I think a better way to look at this question is to consider the turnout. How many people did the candidate actually draw to the polls. Here are a few facts:
There are over 16 million registered voters in Texas. Fewer than a quarter of them went to the polls to vote yesterday. That's not a big wave of enthusiasm.
The total number of votes cast for the Democrat candidates was LESS than the number who voted for President Trump in the Republican primary. Trump, of course, had no real opposition, so there was no reason to go to vote for him. Think about that for a moment. The votes for Trump were ceremonial at best. Trump didn't run a real campaign in the Lone Star State. The Democrats fought hard in the state, however. Mike Bloomberg spent over $40 million dollars on TV ads in Texas alone. Biden, Sanders and Warren all held rallies in the state. And after all that, the four Democrat candidates together couldn't get more votes than the President got himself.
The Democrats did draw more voters than they did in 2016 when it was Hillary and Bernie alone. That primary wasn't even close, however. Also, unlike 2020, the 2016 primary campaign in Texas was mild.
The Republicans drew fewer voters than 4 years ago when Ted Cruz won. Cruz, of course, is a senator from Texas, so he was a major draw of voters. Also, in 2016, the Republican primary was contested, unlike 2020.
One last fact: Texas is not the only state where Trump got more votes yesterday than all the Democrats combined. The same was true in Alabama, Arkansas and Tennessee for example.
So what does this mean? Right now, the enthusiasm is for Trump. His supporters came out to vote in meaningless primaries just to show how much they support him. There seems to be no counter swell of support for the Dems. If Dem support for Joe Biden continues to be unenthusiastic moving forward, November should result in a total Trump victory.
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