The number of cases of corona virus illness in China has stopped growing. China says that there have been 80,995 people infected. That only 100 more than 4 days ago. By contrast, in Italy there are 21,157 cases. Four days ago there were 12,500 cases. In Iran the official figures are 12,700 cases now and 9000 four days ago. In France, it was 2285 four days ago and 4480 today. The USA's figures are 1280 cases four days ago and 2952 now. In South Korea the figures were 7765 cases four days ago and 8086 today. What explains the stopping of the disease in China and the dramatic slowing in Korea?
There are some possibilities.
1. Maybe China is not being honest. Nothing would please the Chinese government more than to be able to point to its "great success" in stopping the disease even if that didn't happen. But then there's that dramatic slowdown in South Korea as well. We can rely on the general accuracy of the Korean figures, so it may be that drastic public health measures in that country are working.
2. Maybe the enforced quarantines in major cities in China have stopped the disease spread. There are stories that the hospitals put up to house just victims of this disease are closing due to lack of patients. Maybe it really has stopped spreading due to lack of contact.
The big jumps in places like Italy or the USA are not surprising at this point. Many of those infected in the USA caught the disease from people who had no idea they were sick in areas where no cases had appeared. That type of spread is going to take a while to work its way through the population. The "social distancing" now moving into place will stop new cases that would be appearing in a week or two, not now.
Korea was hit early by the virus. It has had counter measures in place for weeks now. They seem to be working. That's good news for the world.
There are some possibilities.
1. Maybe China is not being honest. Nothing would please the Chinese government more than to be able to point to its "great success" in stopping the disease even if that didn't happen. But then there's that dramatic slowdown in South Korea as well. We can rely on the general accuracy of the Korean figures, so it may be that drastic public health measures in that country are working.
2. Maybe the enforced quarantines in major cities in China have stopped the disease spread. There are stories that the hospitals put up to house just victims of this disease are closing due to lack of patients. Maybe it really has stopped spreading due to lack of contact.
The big jumps in places like Italy or the USA are not surprising at this point. Many of those infected in the USA caught the disease from people who had no idea they were sick in areas where no cases had appeared. That type of spread is going to take a while to work its way through the population. The "social distancing" now moving into place will stop new cases that would be appearing in a week or two, not now.
Korea was hit early by the virus. It has had counter measures in place for weeks now. They seem to be working. That's good news for the world.
No comments:
Post a Comment