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Thursday, March 5, 2020

Now This Makes Sense

In the next two weeks, roughly another quarter of the delegates to the Democrat convention will be chosen.  The biggest prize during this time is Florida which by itself accounts for about 6% of the total number of delegates.  Florida is also a big, big problem for Bernie Sanders.

Joe Biden has held the lead in Florida through most of the polling for the last year.  About three weeks ago, Biden was ahead by 9%.  Then two things happened.  First, Bernie Sanders praised the "good" things that Fidel Castro did in Cuba like running an adult literacy program while he was imprisoning or executing tens of thousands.  That's about the dumbest political move one can make in Florida which is home to an enormous Cuban community.  Bernie was given chances by the media to "clarify" his comments, but he repeated them three times.  Bernie really has admiration for Castro and his regime in Cuba.  Since those statements were made, Sanders has lost about a quarter of his support in Florida.

The second thing that happened is, of course, that all the other candidates dropped out aside from Biden.  According to the polls, none of that support went to Sanders.  To be fair, Warren just dropped out today, so we don't know for certain where her voters will go, but it doesn't much matter.  Biden is now ahead by 47% in a poll released today.  Sanders doesn't even get the minimum of 15% he needs to get statewide delegates.  Biden could get over 95% of the delegates from Florida.  That would give Biden an insurmountable lead in the nomination race.

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