In the midst of all the other crises affecting the world, we have a new one, or the reawakening of an old one. The problem is Syria. In the last week, forces of the Assad regime and its allies attack Turkish troops in Idlib province in northern Syria. Over 30 Turks were killed in the attack. The response has been a counter-attack by the Turks which has supposedly resulted in over 100 Syrian troops being killed. Things are ramping up in Idlib not returning to normal.
On top of the fighting, Turkey has opened its borders with the rest of Europe to the refugees camped in Turkey. That's more than one million people who will now be free to move into Greece and other countries without any attempt by the Turks to stop them. It remains to be seen if the Greeks and Bulgarians will block the way or shuttle them through on their way to places like Germany and Sweden. The European refugee crisis is back. One wonders how long it will be before some refugee comes down with corona virus and the refugee movement is blamed for spreading the disease across the continent.
In normal times, the Turks would make short work of the Syrian forces. Even with Iranian assistance, Syria is no match for the Turkish army. The Syrians, however, have Russian allies. Were Russia to join in this fighting in a major way, the Turks would have their hands full. No doubt, Turkey would call on NATO to defend it from a Russian attack. That would be a cataclysmic disaster. Since the attack could be blamed on a defense of Syria once the Turks moved into the northern part of that country, NATO countries might refuse to help on the ground that NATO calls for a common defense not support of offensive actions. That would mean the end of Turkey as a NATO member. On the other hand, were NATO to support Turkey, we could see a confrontation between Russia and NATO and nobody wants that, for obvious reasons.
On top of the fighting, Turkey has opened its borders with the rest of Europe to the refugees camped in Turkey. That's more than one million people who will now be free to move into Greece and other countries without any attempt by the Turks to stop them. It remains to be seen if the Greeks and Bulgarians will block the way or shuttle them through on their way to places like Germany and Sweden. The European refugee crisis is back. One wonders how long it will be before some refugee comes down with corona virus and the refugee movement is blamed for spreading the disease across the continent.
In normal times, the Turks would make short work of the Syrian forces. Even with Iranian assistance, Syria is no match for the Turkish army. The Syrians, however, have Russian allies. Were Russia to join in this fighting in a major way, the Turks would have their hands full. No doubt, Turkey would call on NATO to defend it from a Russian attack. That would be a cataclysmic disaster. Since the attack could be blamed on a defense of Syria once the Turks moved into the northern part of that country, NATO countries might refuse to help on the ground that NATO calls for a common defense not support of offensive actions. That would mean the end of Turkey as a NATO member. On the other hand, were NATO to support Turkey, we could see a confrontation between Russia and NATO and nobody wants that, for obvious reasons.
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