It's Coming Soon -- The Obamacare Decision

Sometime in the next month or so, we are likely to hear the decision of the Supreme Court on the constitutionality of Obamacare. Indeed, right now the justices on the Court and their clerks probably already know which side will win. Indeed, I wonder if there have been any leaks from the court to any of the political aparatus in Washington.

One thing that we do know is that the argument was a "surprise" to the liberals who all assured us beforehand that the arguments against Obamacare were so weak as to be of no concern. Reality punctured that bubble.

We also know that since the argument, president Obama has stayed away from mentioning Obamacare, even at times when one would have expected him to talk about that law. Indeed, Obama's silence may be his plan to make an ultimate defeat on the constitutionality of the law seem unimportant.

My prediction is that the most likely outcome is a 5-4 decision striking down the individual mandate and the rest of the law as well. This is certainly not an unusual view. My second most likely outcome, however, is a 6-3 decision finding that the law is unconstitutional. The sixth vote would come from Justice Sotomayor. Her questions and statements during the argument seemed strangely hostile to the government's arguments at many points. Time will tell.