Some Interesting Polling Data

In the recent months, the polling data for the presidential election has been all over the place. Some of the variation is due to who was questioned; some polls cover adults, some registered voters and others likely voters. Obviously, the significance of the result is the highest for likely voters. Today, however, there was an observation about the polls made by Rasmussen that I find very interesting. Over the last two months, Romney has polled at 46% plus or minus 2% the entire time. During the same span, Obama has polled at 45% plus or minus 3%. Depending on the variation of the day, either Romney or Obama was in the lead, but the base points remained the same.

These figures are interesting because they represent the results of polling about 30 thousand likely voters across the country. This is an enormous sample compared to the usual poll. It is also unusual that the numbers would be so fixed in result this early in the election cycle. What the results suggest is that a very high percentage of the electorate has pretty much made up its mind. At the moment Romney is either tied with Obama or slightly ahead. That result is quite different from the spin in the main stream media that consistently explains how Obama is ahead and how difficult it will be for Romney to win. It certainly does not look that way.

So what happens now? There is about 9% of likely voters who have not decided for whom to vote. In the Dick Morris school of thought, that means that Obama will lose essentially all of these voters. After all, these folks know Obama well and have not yet committed to voting for him. They are unlikely to do so in the next few months barring some external event that changes people's perception of Obama. In the world of the main stream media, these undecideds are up for grabs. Will they buy into Obama's class warfare rhetoric--excuse me, Obama's "fairness" rhetoric? Will they seek someone new to run the economy after the terrible time of the last four years? We shall see soon enough.

Clearly, the results of these polls do not tell us for certain who will win in November. We can say, however, with reasonable certainty that Romney has a pretty good chance to win.