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Monday, May 14, 2012

There really has been a shift

Yesterday, there was a poll released of preferences in the presidential election in Maine. To put it mildly, this is hardly an earthshaking poll. Maine, after all, has only 4 electoral votes, and it is a state that has gone Democrat for the last five elections. It is no surprise, then, that Obama is leading Romney in Maine by 50 to 42. What is surprising, however, is the shift in Maine from ealier this year. In March, polling in M.maine showed the margin for Obama at 56 to 36%. Since then, there has been a significant shift towards Romney. So far, it is fair to say that Maine remains safely in the Obama camp. The key, however, is that the shift in Maine mirrors the shift in the national polls as well. If the margin is this close in Maine, then the election at a national level is very close at the moment.

Of course, this is just the indicator of a trend that could easily shift by election day, but the Obama camp should be worried about it.

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