The Washington Post published a poll of registered voters in Virginia which shows Obama leading Romney by 7%. Obama has 51% to Romney's 44%. Obviously 5% are undecided. Something, however, is wrong with the poll. WaPo gives a partial breakdown of the components of the poll and compares them with the actual votes in 2008. In 2008, Obama got 53% of the vote in Virginia to McCain's 46%. According to the WaPo, as of now Obama has the support of 2% less of the electorate than he had in 2008. Now for the problem. Wapo tells us the breakdown among Republicans, Democrats and Independents. According to the paper, Democrats break 94 to 5 for Obama compared to 92 to 8 in 2008. Independents break 51 to 41 for Obama compared to 49 to 48 in 2008. Republicans break 89 to 8 for Romney compared to 92 to 8 for McCain in 2008. So, Obama is running the same among Republicans as he did four years ago, but he has picked up 2% among Democrats and 2% among Independents compared to the 2008 election. Nevertheless, WaPo tells us that overall Obama is down 2% compared to 2008. This makes no sense. Obama cannot run either better or even compared to 2008 in the three components of the electorate only to run behind compared to 2008 when one adds these together.
I rarely trust polls done by the Washington Post. These figures are the reason why.
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