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Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Can't Argue With The Numbers

It sure looks like Trump won the nomination today.  He got, on average, 60% of the vote in five northeastern states.  To be fair, only one of those states is one in which the GOP has much of a chance of victory in November, but Trump's victories were of a different magnitude than those in the past.  Usually, Trump has been getting numbers in the 30s or 40s.  That changed with New York last week and it continued with today's five states.  The only way to read these results is as a rejection of Cruz and Kasich by millions of Republican voters.

Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton put away Bernie Sanders, although with a much less smashing set of victories than the Trump wins on the GOP side.  Bernie even managed to win in Rhode Island and come very close in Connecticut.

So now we move towards November.  In the real world, things can change, but unless Hillary gets indicted, I just don't see any changes coming.

Despite all those who now say that they know how the November election will turn out, the truth is that no one knows.  Indeed, many of the people who are sure that Hillary will beat Trump are the same people who were equally sure on multiple occasions that Trump's campaign had been destroyed by one thing or another Trump said or did.  But they were wrong; why should we believe them now.  We need to see just how Trump focuses his campaign moving forward.  How well will Hillary hold up against Trump.  Will she be the first to actually survive the onslaught or will she succumb?  We all know she is a poor candidate.  If she starts to stumble, will she collapse?  Time will tell.

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