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Tuesday, April 5, 2016

Does Brexit Really Matter?

The latest poll in the UK shows that among people most likely to vote the forces who want to remain in the EU are leading those who wish to leave the EU by just one percent (49 to 48 percent.)  This is a statistical tie.  As the date of the referendum nears, the battle over it rages in Britain.  But here's the real question:  does Brexit really matter?

The British government says that leaving the EU would do vast damage to the economy of the UK.  Those wishing to leave say that the benefits would far outweigh the costs and that the British could remain free of European regulation coming from the bureaucrats in Brussels.  So who is correct?

The answer is simple.  No one can easily predict the results of a vote for Britain to leave the EU unless one knows what will replace it, and no one know that.  Simply being outside the EU will have some effect on the UK.  Right now, the UK is the only major country in the EU that does not use the euro as its currency.  Maintaining the pound as British currency has both helped and hurt the UK.  It has left the English government with the ability to move the economy in their country independently of Europe.  It has, however, reduced the ease of transactions between the UK and the continent with the result of lessening trade slightly.

The real question that the Brexit voters must decide is actually political rather than economic.  Will the Brits lose their freedom if they remain in the EU?  Clearly, staying in the EU means that there will inevitably be rules made by other countries that will control what happens in the UK.  In other words, there will be reductions in British freedom.  If I could vote, that would decide the matter for me.  There is no clear benefit that could possibly outweigh the loss of freedom.

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