A few days ago, there was a poll that showed that in a head to head match up, Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump by three points. That was a marked difference from recent polls in which her lead was ten percent or more over Trump. The poll seemed like an outlier, given all the other recent info. Now we got a second poll to show the race very close. Rasmussen released a poll today that showed the race tied at 38% each. This poll gave voters more choices than Clinton and Trump. They were also given the choice of saying that they would vote for a 3d party or stay home. Huge numbers of voters made those extra choices.
This new Rasmussen poll actually tells us more than the usual head to head matches. By letting voters basically opt out of the Clinton/Trump choice, it gives us a more accurate portrait of the race at this moment. There are literally millions of voters who will pick one candidate or the other is that is their only choice, but who would just opt out of voting if given that choice too. If it were November now, these opt out voters actually would not be likely to vote.
So why is it that Trump appears to have closed the gap so quickly? The answer is not that hard to determine. In the last two weeks, Trump has moved from being just one Republican candidate to being the almost certain Republican candidate. A whole bunch of Republicans and independents who would have preferred someone else are now stuck with the Clinton/Trump choice. They are coming back to the GOP and Trump.
Hillary really has to worry at this point. She has nothing left to offer. Everyone knows her and has a rather fixed view of her. Indeed, were she to take some new positions, few would believe her since she is considered a liar and untrustworthy by nearly all those who are not voting for her (and even by many who are picking her.) She really cannot change the voters' views of her. Trump, on the other hand, will be able now to make moves towards GOP party unity. I doubt that Trump will win the love and respect of Ted Cruz and some of the most strident of the NeverTrump group. Nevertheless, the bulk of the GOP voters who did not want Trump will not switch to Hillary. They will drift back to Trump or else stay home. If Trump can move his campaign towards the center, he may also be able to get additional moderate Democrats to vote for him. There aren't all that many moderates left among the Democrats, but there are still millions of votes at stake in that group.
Moving forward, Hillary is going to have to campaign against Trump by vilifying him. But tell me this: what can Hillary throw at Donald Trump that has not already been said over and over again by Cruz or Bush or Rubio or all the other GOP candidates? Unless there's some old murder conviction for the Donald that we have not heard about previously, the ammunition has been pretty well exhausted. The funny thing is that the reverse is not really true. Bernie Sanders smashed Hillary for taking cash from Wall Street and voting for the Iraq War. Most of his comments dealt with Hillary's policy positions. Now we will see what effect six months of "Crooked Hillary" campaigning will do. Sure, those who have paid attention know that Clinton most likely violated the Espionage Act with her email games. Most Americans, however, don't understand that. Those paying attention know that Clinton used the Clinton Foundation to support her campaign staff in positions and to pay for travel expenses. They also know that both Hillary and Bill got millions from companies and countries that either had business before the State Department or which wanted future consideration from the next president. Because of sparse coverage of the story, however, millions of Americans really don't understand this story either. As Trump makes this case (and he surely will), crooked Hillary will have to withstand a barrage unlike any she has ever previously experienced.
So, I say again, Hillary has to really start worrying now. If these two recent polls are the start of a trend, Clinton may be about to get crushed.
This new Rasmussen poll actually tells us more than the usual head to head matches. By letting voters basically opt out of the Clinton/Trump choice, it gives us a more accurate portrait of the race at this moment. There are literally millions of voters who will pick one candidate or the other is that is their only choice, but who would just opt out of voting if given that choice too. If it were November now, these opt out voters actually would not be likely to vote.
So why is it that Trump appears to have closed the gap so quickly? The answer is not that hard to determine. In the last two weeks, Trump has moved from being just one Republican candidate to being the almost certain Republican candidate. A whole bunch of Republicans and independents who would have preferred someone else are now stuck with the Clinton/Trump choice. They are coming back to the GOP and Trump.
Hillary really has to worry at this point. She has nothing left to offer. Everyone knows her and has a rather fixed view of her. Indeed, were she to take some new positions, few would believe her since she is considered a liar and untrustworthy by nearly all those who are not voting for her (and even by many who are picking her.) She really cannot change the voters' views of her. Trump, on the other hand, will be able now to make moves towards GOP party unity. I doubt that Trump will win the love and respect of Ted Cruz and some of the most strident of the NeverTrump group. Nevertheless, the bulk of the GOP voters who did not want Trump will not switch to Hillary. They will drift back to Trump or else stay home. If Trump can move his campaign towards the center, he may also be able to get additional moderate Democrats to vote for him. There aren't all that many moderates left among the Democrats, but there are still millions of votes at stake in that group.
Moving forward, Hillary is going to have to campaign against Trump by vilifying him. But tell me this: what can Hillary throw at Donald Trump that has not already been said over and over again by Cruz or Bush or Rubio or all the other GOP candidates? Unless there's some old murder conviction for the Donald that we have not heard about previously, the ammunition has been pretty well exhausted. The funny thing is that the reverse is not really true. Bernie Sanders smashed Hillary for taking cash from Wall Street and voting for the Iraq War. Most of his comments dealt with Hillary's policy positions. Now we will see what effect six months of "Crooked Hillary" campaigning will do. Sure, those who have paid attention know that Clinton most likely violated the Espionage Act with her email games. Most Americans, however, don't understand that. Those paying attention know that Clinton used the Clinton Foundation to support her campaign staff in positions and to pay for travel expenses. They also know that both Hillary and Bill got millions from companies and countries that either had business before the State Department or which wanted future consideration from the next president. Because of sparse coverage of the story, however, millions of Americans really don't understand this story either. As Trump makes this case (and he surely will), crooked Hillary will have to withstand a barrage unlike any she has ever previously experienced.
So, I say again, Hillary has to really start worrying now. If these two recent polls are the start of a trend, Clinton may be about to get crushed.
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