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Tuesday, April 12, 2016

What If Brexit Wins?

The latest polls from the UK show a lead for the forces in the UK that wish to leave the European Union.  The lead is small, only about 3%.  Nevertheless, it is significant that the people who want to depart the EU are ahead of those who want to remain in the EU.  So, what would it all mean if Brexit actually takes place?

The simple answer is that no one knows for certain what would happen.  There are so called experts who predict problems for the world economy, but most of those predictions are nothing but wild guesses.  There are some who say that Brexit would invigorate the UK economy and create a new engine for growth in Europe.  Again, that is just another guess.

The reality is that the key question for British voters is not how Brexit would affect the world economy.  The key question is just how much of British sovereignty they are willing to relinquish for the "benefits" of remaining in the EU.  If the Brits value their freedom sufficiently, they will vote to leave the EU. 

In many ways the current EU is like America during the period when the Articles of Confederation were in effect.  There was a semi-country here in North America, but most things were left vague and confused.  Only after the more structured and rigorous Constitution was adopted did a country appear.  Even so, it took nearly a century until the Civil War pulled all the disparate states together.  Europe (and the UK) have a choice:  they can unite into a single European entity with a continent wide government or they can stay as individual countries.  If the choice is for individual countries, however, then Brexit makes eminent sense.

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