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Monday, April 4, 2016

How Dense Are They?

There are two different contests every four years in the presidential primary season.  Usually, the only one that matters consists of the caucuses and primaries in which voters select the candidate for whom the delegates from their state will vote.  Normally, this selection process allows the voters to direct who will be the nominee of their party for president.  There are some variations on this result.  For example, among the Democrats there are many hundreds of so called super-delegates who are supposed party leaders and who get to vote for whomever they choose, no matter what the voters say.  This year, the Democrat super-delegates are solidly behind Hillary Clinton to such a degree that her nomination is a certainty so long as she does not lose the actual primary selection process by more than 60% to 40% to Bernie Sanders.  It seems odd and very undemocratic that the "party leaders" could stack the deck to give Hillary the victory even after losing by a 3 to 2 margin to Bernie Sanders, but those are the rule.

The second contest which comes every four years consists of the actual selection of the delegates.  The individuals chosen by their parties are, in most states, bound to vote for the candidate who won the caucus or primary in their state.  After the first or second ballot (depending on the state), however, these delegates are free to choose whomever they want.  This year, for the first time in a long time, this second contest could affect the outcome of the nomination process.  In the event that Donald Trump fails to get sufficient votes to win on the first ballot, more than half of the delegates will become free agents who can switch away from or towards Trump.  As a result, there are contests now happening in many states over the identities of these delegates.  It's a normal part of the process, but this year it actually could matter.

Despite these facts, many in the media are portraying the effort by the campaigns to select supporters as delegates as somehow underhanded or wrong.  That's ridiculous.  It's just good organization and smart politics to do so.  Today's big story is that in Arizona, the Cruz campaign is getting its supporters selected as delegates despite Trump's big win there.  Good for Ted Cruz and his campaign.  This is exactly what they ought to be trying to accomplish.  The real story here is not that Cruz is making this effort, but that the Trump campaign is not doing it.  The story is not "theft" by Cruz but "failure" by Trump.  I guess we can say of Trump that he doesn't seem to win anymore.

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