Is Trump Going To Win the Nomination?

With all the non-stop blather about the presidential races, very little attention has been given to whether or not Donald Trump will actually win the nomination.  It's worth taking a look at the current situation.

First of all, any candidate needs the votes of a majority (1237) delegates at the GOP convention to win the nomination.  As of today, Trump has already won the votes of 736, so he needs another 501.  there are 18 states that have yet to hold primaries or caucuses.  These break down into four categories.

1.  One state will select delegates that will be uncommitted.  To get delegates there, Trump will need to convince the individual delegate.

2.  Five states with 159 delegates (Delaware 16, Nebraska 36, Montana 27, New Jersey 51 and South Dakota 29) are winner take all.  Of these, Cruz is likely to win in Nebraska, Montana and South Dakota (92); Trump should win New Jersey (51) and Delaware is uncertain.  Trump should get either 51 or 67 delegates here.

3.  Seven states with 238 delegates are proportional.  These include NY (95), CT (28), RI (19), WA (44), OR (28), and NM (24).  Trump should do well in NY, CT and RI.  Cruz should win in OR, WA and NM.  Trump could get about 130 delegates here. 

4.  Five states with 380 delegates are winner take most.  The rules in each of these five states vary but in general delegates go to the winner of congressional districts and statewide.  These states are PA (71), CA (172), WI (42), MD (38), and IN (57).  Cruz should win in Wisconsin.  The others are uncertain.  If Trump gets half the delegates of the uncertain states, he would come up with about 175.

Putting the 372 delegates from the remaining primaries/caucuses with the 736 already won gives Trump 1108.  That’s 129 fewer than needed.  But that is not the end of the exercise.

There are 31 delegates yet to be chosen and bound in the states that have already voted.  These delegates are not bound to any candidate.  There are also 112 delegates who are chosen but not bound to any candidate.  Of these 112, Trump has gotten the support of 2 delegates, Cruz has 11 and Kasich has 1.  These 2 Trump delegates are included in the numbers above.  There remain another 98 who can select a candidate.  Then there are 171 Rubio delegates and 10 for other candidates like Carson who also dropped out.  Rubio is “holding” his delegates, but he may not be able to do so at the convention.  This leaves a pool of another 310 delegates that could select Trump.  If he gets just one third of them, he hits 1211 which is just 26 short of the number he needs.  At that point, the pressure for delegates to switch will be intense.

What this analysis shows is that the nomination will be won or lost by Trump in three states:  California, Pennsylvania and Indiana.  If Cruz can surprise in California and Pennsylvania and win two thirds of the delegates (which he would surely get if he wins by 5% or more), he can likely deny Trump a first ballot win.  Indiana is not as important, but a sweep there by Cruz could help swing the outcome.

There is one further issue that will affect the outcome on the first ballot:  some of the delegates may ignore state law and vote for a candidate other than the one that they are required to select.  This happens at every convention, but it never affects the outcome so it is ignore.  For example, in the 2012 convention, delegates from Iowa voted for Ron Paul even though Paul did poorly in the Iowa caucus.  If 50 delegates decide that they won’t vote for Trump, it could deny him a first ballot victory.  State law may require delegates to vote in a particular way, but there is no penalty for violating that law.  In the past, the convention has accepted the votes of the delegates as cast no matter what the laws of their home states required.

If Trump fails to win on the first ballot, then his chances for victory are ended.  About 1300 delegates are only bound by the results of the primary on the first ballot.   Delegates are selected by party conventions for the most part and the delegates are long time party workers and supporters.  The delegates are bound by primary results but that does not mean that the delegates truly support the nominee to whom they are pledged.  Because of this methodology, Trump has many votes from delegates who would prefer someone else.  If Trump gets 1150 votes on the first ballot, that total would decline by at least 250 on the second ballot.  By the third ballot, nearly all the delegates are no long bound.