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Sunday, April 17, 2016

Once Again Trump Is A Loser

It shouldn't be news to anyone that there are two distinct races in the GOP presidential nominating contest.  First, we have the primaries/caucuses which have voters named their favorite for the nomination.  Under party rules, the results of these primaries/caucuses MUST be binding on delegates to the convention for at least the first ballot in Cleveland unless the delegates themselves are individually elected (relevant only in PA and WV).  In nearly every year, one candidate wraps up a majority of the delegate votes for the first ballot and that's the end of the matter.  There hasn't been a second ballot at a GOP convention in more than 60 years.  The second race, however, is for the delegate slots themselves.  In many states, delegates are selected by local or statewide party conventions.  Local conventions are much like the caucuses which get so much coverage.  In some states, Iowa for example, the caucuses are actually the local conventions.  These local conventions elected representatives to regional conventions.  Those regional conventions in turn select representatives to the state convention.  The state convention then picks delegates to the national convention.  It's not enough to just win the statewide presidential ballot if a candidate wants to have his people selected as delegates to the national convention.  The candidate also has to have his people attend the local conventions, vote as a bloc, and select the representatives to the regional convention who support the candidate.  That process must continue on if one wants to have friendly delegates to the national convention.

Donald Trump ran in the first race, but he IGNORED the second.  Trump paid no attention to the selection of individual delegates.  That is why all these delegates are being chosen now who support Cruz and not Trump.  These delegates will be bound to support Trump or Cruz or even Rubio or Kasich depending on the results of their states primary or caucus.  They are only bound on the first or first two ballots, however, depending on the state law.  To use Trump's vernacular, he's just too stupid to understand the actual rules which have been in place since long before he announced his candidacy a year ago.  He's a loser.  He just doesn't win anymore.  To put it more succinctly, if Trump fails to get a majority on the first ballot, he has NO chance of winning.

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