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Thursday, January 4, 2018

Was This The First Benefit of the Tax Cuts?

December jobs numbers from ADP came out today and show an increase of 250,000 people employed.  This is above the monthly average for the first 11 months of 2017 by about 20% and more than 25% above the estimate of 190,000 from the "experts".  It's just one statistic, but I wonder if the increase in hiring is due to enthusiasm among businesses--especially small businesses--in anticipation of the GOP tax cuts passed last month.  According to ADP, the new jobs were heavily concentrated in the small business segment of the economy:

By size, businesses with between 50 and 499 employees added 100,000 jobs while small firms hired 94,000 and large companies contributed 56,000 to the total.

Since big companies employ about half of the labor force but only provided about 20% of the December job growth, the major hiring move in small and middle sized companies is clear.  There's clearly no way to know how much of the hiring surge is due to the tax cuts, but it is hard to conclude that the two are unrelated.  We have already seen major corporations paying bonuses averaging $1000 to literally millions of employees due to the tax cuts.  Now we are likely seeing the response of small businesses focused on hiring.
These are major benefits for middle income and poor Americans.  Hopefully, these same people will remember next November that not a single Democrat voted for this tax cut.
 

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