The results of recent polling shows a clear change in political direction across the country. Just six weeks ago, the mainstream media was filled with articles proclaiming a Democrat victory next November as "inevitable". The House would surely go Democrat and even the Senate might follow suit. After all, in the generic polling, the results were showing a double digit lead for the Democrats. Then came the new tax law, the wave of bonuses, raises and other economic good news resulting from that tax cut, a series of other positive stories for the GOP, the Democrats government shut down debacle, the immigration plan put forward by President Trump and the disclosure that much of the Trump-Russia investigation was the result of nothing more than a Clinton/Democrat dirty trick. The move in the polls was rather large. Today, Monmouth released a poll that shows the President's approval rating at 44% with disapproval at 48% among registered voters. That 4 point margin compares to a 16 point margin by which Mr. Trump was under water just a month ago. The poll also puts the generic ballot question to the Democrats by 2% among registered voters. Normally, such a margin means that among likely voters, the Republicans hold the lead. It's an amazing turnaround.
The biggest news regarding this poll is what it does not include. First, the people who were polled still think by a 12% margin that their own taxes will go up rather than down due to the new tax law. By the middle of February, most Americans will find out that in truth some 80% of them will be getting substantial increases in take home pay thanks to the new law. These raises are sure to provide a boost both to President Trump's job approval numbers and to the prospect for Republican victory in November.
Second, the polls were taken prior to last night's State of the Union speech. We already know that three quarters of those who watched approved of what they heard including nearly half of the Democrats. On top of this, we had the spectacle of Democrats sitting angrily in silence as the President ticked off some major accomplishments and paid tribute to some American heroes. How will blacks react to watching the Congressional Black Caucus sit on their hands rather than applauding the lowest black unemployment rate ever recorded. How will the average independent react to Mr. Trump honoring the parents who daughters were slain by an MS-13 gang member while the Democrats scowled into the camera rather than joining in comforting those poor people? How many people were amazed to see the Democrats refuse to clap for the parents of poor Otto Warmbier who was tortured to death by the North Koreans for the crime of being an American? This has to hurt the Democrats badly.
No one knows what the next day or month will bring. There could be big events that change public perceptions. One thing is certain, however: the tide of public political support is moving in a Republican direction right now.
The biggest news regarding this poll is what it does not include. First, the people who were polled still think by a 12% margin that their own taxes will go up rather than down due to the new tax law. By the middle of February, most Americans will find out that in truth some 80% of them will be getting substantial increases in take home pay thanks to the new law. These raises are sure to provide a boost both to President Trump's job approval numbers and to the prospect for Republican victory in November.
Second, the polls were taken prior to last night's State of the Union speech. We already know that three quarters of those who watched approved of what they heard including nearly half of the Democrats. On top of this, we had the spectacle of Democrats sitting angrily in silence as the President ticked off some major accomplishments and paid tribute to some American heroes. How will blacks react to watching the Congressional Black Caucus sit on their hands rather than applauding the lowest black unemployment rate ever recorded. How will the average independent react to Mr. Trump honoring the parents who daughters were slain by an MS-13 gang member while the Democrats scowled into the camera rather than joining in comforting those poor people? How many people were amazed to see the Democrats refuse to clap for the parents of poor Otto Warmbier who was tortured to death by the North Koreans for the crime of being an American? This has to hurt the Democrats badly.
No one knows what the next day or month will bring. There could be big events that change public perceptions. One thing is certain, however: the tide of public political support is moving in a Republican direction right now.
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