There's a story this morning that the Iranians have seized another oil tanker in the Straits of Hormuz. This time the pretext is that the tanker was smuggling diesel fuel. That's strange since the tanker didn't originate in Iran, was not going to Iran, and never entered Iranian territorial waters. Okay, it's not strange; it's just a pretextual lie. Also yesterday, President Trump said the USA was "locked and loaded" to respond to the attack on the Saudi oil facilities.
So what does this mean? Will there be an American response to the attack on the Saudis? If so, how will Iran and its allies respond. We could have a one and done moment where the US hits some targets and things then quiet down. Things like that sadly happens all the time in the Middle East. Alternatively, we could have a US response followed by an Iranian escalation and another US response all leading to war.
Iran has threatened that it will launch missile attacks on American ships and bases throughout the region. Imagine what would happen if, God forbid, the Iranians hit one of our ships with a missile and killed many sailors or even sank the vessel. It would be horrible. But, we could easily be going there.
I get people who tell me that I am too leery of a war with Iran. Look at all that has happened in the region, and we have never gotten to war, or so I am told. I don't buy it. Iran thinks that the only thing that will protect it is to have nuclear weapons. The USA believes with good reason that it cannot live with a nuclear Iran. The only "settlement" ever achieved came when Obama threw in the towel and agreed to a pact that let the Iranians get nukes in ten years (when he conveniently would no longer be president). That wasn't going to work then, and it isn't going to work now.
The reality is that we are closer to war with Iran than we have been since the day the American hostages were released by Iran in 1981.
So what does this mean? Will there be an American response to the attack on the Saudis? If so, how will Iran and its allies respond. We could have a one and done moment where the US hits some targets and things then quiet down. Things like that sadly happens all the time in the Middle East. Alternatively, we could have a US response followed by an Iranian escalation and another US response all leading to war.
Iran has threatened that it will launch missile attacks on American ships and bases throughout the region. Imagine what would happen if, God forbid, the Iranians hit one of our ships with a missile and killed many sailors or even sank the vessel. It would be horrible. But, we could easily be going there.
I get people who tell me that I am too leery of a war with Iran. Look at all that has happened in the region, and we have never gotten to war, or so I am told. I don't buy it. Iran thinks that the only thing that will protect it is to have nuclear weapons. The USA believes with good reason that it cannot live with a nuclear Iran. The only "settlement" ever achieved came when Obama threw in the towel and agreed to a pact that let the Iranians get nukes in ten years (when he conveniently would no longer be president). That wasn't going to work then, and it isn't going to work now.
The reality is that we are closer to war with Iran than we have been since the day the American hostages were released by Iran in 1981.
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