In the Obama campaign for the White House, his slogan Yes We Can was used in Spanish as Si Se Puede. Now, it seems that the slogan should be adopted by President Trump and the GOP. According to new polling, the national chair of the GOP says that support by Hispanics in Texas for Trump and the GOP has increased by 20 percentage points over the levels of 2016. It's just polling and it's just Texas, but just think for a moment what that means.
Let's assume that Hispanic support for Trump just increases by half as much as the claimed 20 points. In 2016, according to Pew Research, Trump won 28% of the Hispanic vote. That would mean that in 2020, with the increase noted above, Trump would carry 38% of the vote to the Democrat's 62%. That would still lose the Hispanic vote, but it would shift the margin by about 2% nationally. That's a huge difference. It's enough to lock up states like Florida, Arizona, Texas and to place Nevada and Colorado into play if all other votes stay the same.
Polling also shows that African American support for Trump has risen over 2016 levels. Add in this difference and the national margin would shift over 3%. That would swing Virginia to the GOP, lock in NC and GA as well as MI for 2020.
In other words, these changes in minority support for Trump would pretty much assure that he would carry all the states he won in 2016 and would likely swing VA, CO and NV to the Republicans as well. In other words, the race wouldn't even be close.
Of course, these changes aren't being made in a vacuum. The votes of whites, Asian Americans and others would change. Still, if the above numbers hold in the Hispanic and African American groups, the Democrats really just cannot win.
Let's assume that Hispanic support for Trump just increases by half as much as the claimed 20 points. In 2016, according to Pew Research, Trump won 28% of the Hispanic vote. That would mean that in 2020, with the increase noted above, Trump would carry 38% of the vote to the Democrat's 62%. That would still lose the Hispanic vote, but it would shift the margin by about 2% nationally. That's a huge difference. It's enough to lock up states like Florida, Arizona, Texas and to place Nevada and Colorado into play if all other votes stay the same.
Polling also shows that African American support for Trump has risen over 2016 levels. Add in this difference and the national margin would shift over 3%. That would swing Virginia to the GOP, lock in NC and GA as well as MI for 2020.
In other words, these changes in minority support for Trump would pretty much assure that he would carry all the states he won in 2016 and would likely swing VA, CO and NV to the Republicans as well. In other words, the race wouldn't even be close.
Of course, these changes aren't being made in a vacuum. The votes of whites, Asian Americans and others would change. Still, if the above numbers hold in the Hispanic and African American groups, the Democrats really just cannot win.
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