There's a piece out yesterday from Michelle Goldberg in which she talks about the imminent demise of the Republican party. She bases her "dream" on some polling which one pollster claims indicates a "blue wave" in 2020. Someone really ought to clue her in to reality.
Let's start with some history.
1. I'll limit myself to the last century. 100 years ago, the GOP won the presidency and dominated Congress and the states for a decade.
2. In 1932, Roosevelt and the Democrats took control of most of the government in the wake of the Depression. That lasted for 20 years. During that time, there were points where pundits predicted that the Republicans would never come back.
3. In 1952, Eisenhower returned the GOP to the White House. Republicans also made a comeback in Congress and the states.
4. That comeback didn't last long. In 1960, Kennedy squeaked past Nixon, so the Democrats took control again. But then in 1964, the GOP nominated Barry Goldwater and he was crushed by Lyndon Johnson. That Democrat victory was so great that the pundits and pollsters started talking about the demise of the GOP.
5. By the 1966 congressional election, the GOP had come back and in 1968, they won the White House with Nixon. In 1972, Nixon and the GOP crushed McGovern and the Democrats in one of the worst beatings ever for the Dems. There was some discussion at that point about the demise of the Democrats.
6. After Watergate, it got close for a few years, then Reagan took the White House from Carter. The GOP was back on top. Republicans did much better in Congress as well. There was much talk about the "emerging" Republican permanent majority. In other words, we were back to the demise of the Democrats. That was especially true after Reagan crushed Mondale in 1984.
7. During the 1990s, Clinton was president but he never came close to winning a majority of the vote. The GOP took control of Congress in 1994 and has held that control for 20 of the next 26 years,
8, By 2000, the pollsters and pundits started talking about how demographic changes would guarantee Democrat victories and the demise of the Republicans. We got Bush, Obama and Trump, so two out of three Republicans. Indeed, by 2016, the Republicans controlled more seats in Congress and the state legislatures than at any time since 1924. That's hardly the demise of the Republicans.
9. In 2018, the Dems took back the House, but the GOP still controls the Senate, the majority of state legislatures, the majority of governors and the presidency.
What this history shows is that the support for parties grows and diminishes over time, but the US two party system is remarkably stable. There has been no effective new party formed since the GOP was created in the 1850's as a strong anti-slavery party. There is no reason to believe that this will change. In particular a few polls taken over a year before an election hardly indicates the demise of what is now the majority party.
Remember these few facts:
1. The Democrats depend on monolithic support from minorities. Polling shows that job approval for President Trump among African Americans exceeds 30%. That's hardly a ringing endorsement, but were 30% of blacks to vote for Trump in 2020, he would win in a landslide. Polling also shows surprisingly high support for Trump among Hispanics.
2. Polls don't mean much. Remember 2016.
It's one thing to predict a short term trend using a poll. It's something more to predict the winner of elections based on polls that are taken more than a year before that vote. It's beyond ridiculous to use a few polls to predict the end of a political party.
But hey, Michelle Goldberg is a progressive writing in the NY Times, so obviously her nonsense has to be credited by the mainstream media. Don't fall for it.
Let's start with some history.
1. I'll limit myself to the last century. 100 years ago, the GOP won the presidency and dominated Congress and the states for a decade.
2. In 1932, Roosevelt and the Democrats took control of most of the government in the wake of the Depression. That lasted for 20 years. During that time, there were points where pundits predicted that the Republicans would never come back.
3. In 1952, Eisenhower returned the GOP to the White House. Republicans also made a comeback in Congress and the states.
4. That comeback didn't last long. In 1960, Kennedy squeaked past Nixon, so the Democrats took control again. But then in 1964, the GOP nominated Barry Goldwater and he was crushed by Lyndon Johnson. That Democrat victory was so great that the pundits and pollsters started talking about the demise of the GOP.
5. By the 1966 congressional election, the GOP had come back and in 1968, they won the White House with Nixon. In 1972, Nixon and the GOP crushed McGovern and the Democrats in one of the worst beatings ever for the Dems. There was some discussion at that point about the demise of the Democrats.
6. After Watergate, it got close for a few years, then Reagan took the White House from Carter. The GOP was back on top. Republicans did much better in Congress as well. There was much talk about the "emerging" Republican permanent majority. In other words, we were back to the demise of the Democrats. That was especially true after Reagan crushed Mondale in 1984.
7. During the 1990s, Clinton was president but he never came close to winning a majority of the vote. The GOP took control of Congress in 1994 and has held that control for 20 of the next 26 years,
8, By 2000, the pollsters and pundits started talking about how demographic changes would guarantee Democrat victories and the demise of the Republicans. We got Bush, Obama and Trump, so two out of three Republicans. Indeed, by 2016, the Republicans controlled more seats in Congress and the state legislatures than at any time since 1924. That's hardly the demise of the Republicans.
9. In 2018, the Dems took back the House, but the GOP still controls the Senate, the majority of state legislatures, the majority of governors and the presidency.
What this history shows is that the support for parties grows and diminishes over time, but the US two party system is remarkably stable. There has been no effective new party formed since the GOP was created in the 1850's as a strong anti-slavery party. There is no reason to believe that this will change. In particular a few polls taken over a year before an election hardly indicates the demise of what is now the majority party.
Remember these few facts:
1. The Democrats depend on monolithic support from minorities. Polling shows that job approval for President Trump among African Americans exceeds 30%. That's hardly a ringing endorsement, but were 30% of blacks to vote for Trump in 2020, he would win in a landslide. Polling also shows surprisingly high support for Trump among Hispanics.
2. Polls don't mean much. Remember 2016.
It's one thing to predict a short term trend using a poll. It's something more to predict the winner of elections based on polls that are taken more than a year before that vote. It's beyond ridiculous to use a few polls to predict the end of a political party.
But hey, Michelle Goldberg is a progressive writing in the NY Times, so obviously her nonsense has to be credited by the mainstream media. Don't fall for it.
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