Years ago, I used to hear an expert who reported each day why the stock market went up or down that day. The funny thing was that at 9:20 (just before the market opened) he rarely had an opinion as to what the market would do that day. At 4:;20 (shortly after the market had closed), he always knew exactly why the day's trading had gone the way it did. It was rather funny to hear this fool tell us day after day that he knew the complete reason for the day's trading. After all, if he really could tell the reason for the trading, he could have invested each day and retired after making his first few billions. Obviously, he didn't have a clue what had happened on most days.
Today, there are a myriad of "experts" who tell us why things have happened or what is about to happen. It's not just those interested in investing in the stock market. If you turn on the cable news channels, there's always a bunch of self-proclaimed "experts" who "know" what is about to happen. And no matter how wrong they get things, these "experts" continue to issue their profound insights into the future.
A good example is China and North Korea "expert" Gordon Change. In 2001 or 2002, he wrote a lengthy book in which he described the coming economic collapse of China. That collapse, he told us, was "imminent". Now, seventeen years later, Chang is still making appearances on many news programs to give us his predictions for China, North Korea or Japan. The fact that China never collapsed doesn't matter; Chang is still presented as an expert. Sometimes, the news people questioning him even introduce him as the author of the book in which he predicted the collapse.
Think of all those "experts" who told us that Trump couldn't win in 2016 or that Hillary had the election locked up. They're nearly all still on the air. Then there are the "experts" who told us that the election of Trump would cause a depression or a severe recession. They weren't even close to being correct, but they're still on the air.
What's the point of all these so called experts making their predictions? Couldn't we all just buy one of those magic 8 balls and let it tell us something like "not likely" when asked a question?
It's not just politics and finance where this phenomenon exists. Look at a dry science like Demography. The UN employs a huge administrative staff to make population projections. In 1960, for example, these experts pojected the world's population for 2020. Now that we're actually just about at 2020, it's pretty clear that these experts were off by more than 2 billion people. That's like being off by 25%. The UN experts labored for months to develop these projections which were ridiculously wrong.
And how about the global warming "experts" who told us that the world was doomed by 2010? Need I say more?
Today, there are a myriad of "experts" who tell us why things have happened or what is about to happen. It's not just those interested in investing in the stock market. If you turn on the cable news channels, there's always a bunch of self-proclaimed "experts" who "know" what is about to happen. And no matter how wrong they get things, these "experts" continue to issue their profound insights into the future.
A good example is China and North Korea "expert" Gordon Change. In 2001 or 2002, he wrote a lengthy book in which he described the coming economic collapse of China. That collapse, he told us, was "imminent". Now, seventeen years later, Chang is still making appearances on many news programs to give us his predictions for China, North Korea or Japan. The fact that China never collapsed doesn't matter; Chang is still presented as an expert. Sometimes, the news people questioning him even introduce him as the author of the book in which he predicted the collapse.
Think of all those "experts" who told us that Trump couldn't win in 2016 or that Hillary had the election locked up. They're nearly all still on the air. Then there are the "experts" who told us that the election of Trump would cause a depression or a severe recession. They weren't even close to being correct, but they're still on the air.
What's the point of all these so called experts making their predictions? Couldn't we all just buy one of those magic 8 balls and let it tell us something like "not likely" when asked a question?
It's not just politics and finance where this phenomenon exists. Look at a dry science like Demography. The UN employs a huge administrative staff to make population projections. In 1960, for example, these experts pojected the world's population for 2020. Now that we're actually just about at 2020, it's pretty clear that these experts were off by more than 2 billion people. That's like being off by 25%. The UN experts labored for months to develop these projections which were ridiculously wrong.
And how about the global warming "experts" who told us that the world was doomed by 2010? Need I say more?
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