Search This Blog

Saturday, June 6, 2015

Is Hillary Really in Trouble?

Greenwich, Connecticut is predominantly Republican, but the local newspaper (the Greenwich Time) is stridently liberal and Democrat.  An article in this morning's paper is a sign that Hillary Clinton may actually be in trouble even with a big chunk of the Democrats' money base.  The report in the paper is about a fund raising event Hillary held in Greenwich last night.  Appropriately, the festivities took place at the old home of Boss Tweed, the 19th century corrupt head of the Democrat machine of the day in New York City, Tammany Hall.  That, however, is not the point.  No, the point is that the event raised $200 thousand from 85 people who attended.  That may sound pretty good, but for a campaign event in Greenwich for the all but certain Democrat nominee, it's a pretty paltry take.  Let me explain.

First of all, the way campaigns report their numbers, the $200 thousand is exaggerated.  Many of those attending the event had previously given $2500 to Hillary.  They were just invited to the event as a thank you and their previous contributions were added in.

Second, nearly all of the state Democrat power structure were present.  That included senators Blumenthal and Murphy (or as I refer to them, Heckle and Jeckle), as well as the state party chair and all sorts of state legislators.  These folks really have no choice but to give the required cash to Hillary.  It sounds like Hillary managed to draw something like 50 private contributors to the big event.

Third, it is almost certain that nearly all of the 50 who came were part of a couple.  Let's be conservative (sorry, Hillary) and assume that 40 of the people were really 20 couples and ten singles.  That brings the total number down to around thirty contributor groups.

Fourth, some of those present were surely big bundlers for Hillary.  Normally, these are people like the head of a business who gets his or her friends and business associates (like his attorneys and accountants and suppliers who want to keep his or her business).  These bundlers attend, but the members of their group also attend.  That brings the total number of groups down to like 5 or 6.

For a fundraiser in Greenwich, that is really poor.  There are thousands of people in town for whom the $2500 would be spare change.  Normally, a large number of these people give to the Democrats (and many also give to the Republicans.)  The turnout for Hillary is surprisingly small.

Remember, the race among Democrats is not like the one among the Republicans.  There is really only one candidate.  Hillary should have been able to take in five times the amount that she got at this fund raiser.  After all, all those bankers, hedge fund managers, attorneys, etc. want to be in early as part of the Hillary campaign to get maximum credit for later when they need favors from the Clintons.  The event was a total dud.




 

No comments: