The Supreme Court will rule this month in the case of King v. Burwell, and its decision has the possibility of ending Obamacare subsidies, the individual mandate and the employer mandate in three quarters of the states. Only in those states that established their own healthcare exchanges would the subsidies, employer mandate and individual mandate still be in effect. The media story about this decision is that should the Court enforce the Obamacare law as written and end much of its applicability in all but 17 states, there will be an immediate backlash against (who else) the Republican Congress.
The media never discusses the fact that Obamacare was passed only by the Democrats. They wrote it and they are the ones who drafted the language that the Court is construing. The public understands this, but somehow the media chooses not to do so.
The media focuses instead on the need for immediate action to preserve the subsidies for those who will lose them. Otherwise, we will have millions of people who lose their healthcare. That's the story, period. But that's not how the public sees it. Another of those endless polls is just out asking American voters about their views of Obamacare. By a margin of 55 to 40 percent, the voters disapprove of the law. Will this 55% of the electorate really be upset if the individual mandate disappears in their state? Will they care if the employer mandate also vanishes and businesses start hiring enough workers so that their total number of employees exceeds 50 and other workers move from 30 hour part time weeks to 40 hour full time weeks? Will they even care if some people lose their health insurance and have to get coverage elsewhere or go without it?
The media always talks about the millions of people who now have coverage who did not have it before Obamacare. Once again, that is only part of the story. When is the last time that you read that more than three quarters of those who have gained "healthcare" are on Medicaid and will be unaffected by the Supreme Court decision? When is the last time you read that even among those around the country who bought policies on the exchange, only about 40% will lose subsidies? So how many is that? Most likely, we are talking about at most 3 to 4 million people. When 7 to 8 million people had their coverage cancelled due to Obamacare, the same media and the administration told us that it was no big deal; it only affected a tiny part of the country. Now that half that number might be affected, the media sees Armageddon approaching. And what of the millions of people who have had to pay penalties for their failure to buy insurance? If they live in states affected by the Court's decision, they will be entitled to refunds of that penalty and there will be no future penalties. And one last thing: how many of the people who lose their policies will be that upset that they no long will have to pay hundreds of dollars each month in premiums? All those young and healthy workers who used to go without insurance will get a rather hefty increase in their available cash each month. Will these same folks stay home and fret about not having insurance?
The reality is that if the Court enforces the law as written, the real losers will be the insurance companies. If they lose a big chunk of the market, their profits will get squeezed. That squeeze will force the government to change the law. Maybe then, we can get a plan which actually works, a plan which focuses on access to healthcare rather than access to health insurance, a plan that actually works to cut healthcare costs. (I like to dream big.)
The media never discusses the fact that Obamacare was passed only by the Democrats. They wrote it and they are the ones who drafted the language that the Court is construing. The public understands this, but somehow the media chooses not to do so.
The media focuses instead on the need for immediate action to preserve the subsidies for those who will lose them. Otherwise, we will have millions of people who lose their healthcare. That's the story, period. But that's not how the public sees it. Another of those endless polls is just out asking American voters about their views of Obamacare. By a margin of 55 to 40 percent, the voters disapprove of the law. Will this 55% of the electorate really be upset if the individual mandate disappears in their state? Will they care if the employer mandate also vanishes and businesses start hiring enough workers so that their total number of employees exceeds 50 and other workers move from 30 hour part time weeks to 40 hour full time weeks? Will they even care if some people lose their health insurance and have to get coverage elsewhere or go without it?
The media always talks about the millions of people who now have coverage who did not have it before Obamacare. Once again, that is only part of the story. When is the last time that you read that more than three quarters of those who have gained "healthcare" are on Medicaid and will be unaffected by the Supreme Court decision? When is the last time you read that even among those around the country who bought policies on the exchange, only about 40% will lose subsidies? So how many is that? Most likely, we are talking about at most 3 to 4 million people. When 7 to 8 million people had their coverage cancelled due to Obamacare, the same media and the administration told us that it was no big deal; it only affected a tiny part of the country. Now that half that number might be affected, the media sees Armageddon approaching. And what of the millions of people who have had to pay penalties for their failure to buy insurance? If they live in states affected by the Court's decision, they will be entitled to refunds of that penalty and there will be no future penalties. And one last thing: how many of the people who lose their policies will be that upset that they no long will have to pay hundreds of dollars each month in premiums? All those young and healthy workers who used to go without insurance will get a rather hefty increase in their available cash each month. Will these same folks stay home and fret about not having insurance?
The reality is that if the Court enforces the law as written, the real losers will be the insurance companies. If they lose a big chunk of the market, their profits will get squeezed. That squeeze will force the government to change the law. Maybe then, we can get a plan which actually works, a plan which focuses on access to healthcare rather than access to health insurance, a plan that actually works to cut healthcare costs. (I like to dream big.)
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