There's ten days left in June. Right now, those ten days are shaping up to be crammed with major developments. Here are some examples:
1. The Supreme Court will issue its decision on the subsidies and mandates of Obamacare. Normal rules of statutory construction would guarantee that the Court will hold that in states which have not created their own healthcare exchange, the employer mandate, the individual mandate and the subsidies for buyers of insurance on the (federal) exchange are not valid. With one decision, two-thirds of the states will be removed from major parts of Obamacare. For the Court to rule otherwise, it will have to ignore precedent and go fully political. That sort of ruling has happened in the past, but each time it has done major damage to the Court as an institution. Hopefully, there will be a unanimous decision or at least one that gets to 8 to 1.
2. In the Middle East, the fight against ISIS may expand to draw in the Israelis. ISIS and al Qaeda are putting Syria's large Druse communities in the crosshairs. If the attacks occur, the Israel Defense Forces may intervene. It would jumble an already confused situation.
3. The talks with Iran over its nuclear program are scheduled to be concluded before the end of the month. The most likely outcome here is a postponement of the date in order to give the Iranians time to come up with a new list of concessions they can demand from president Obama.
4. The talks between Greece and the EU are also supposed to come to a conclusion. So far, the possibility of a Grexit has been more like a chronic disease than a crisis. That could change in the next few days.
Of course, it is most likely that there will be something else that will grab the media's attention. Reality will still be out there though, and it may not be all that pretty.
1. The Supreme Court will issue its decision on the subsidies and mandates of Obamacare. Normal rules of statutory construction would guarantee that the Court will hold that in states which have not created their own healthcare exchange, the employer mandate, the individual mandate and the subsidies for buyers of insurance on the (federal) exchange are not valid. With one decision, two-thirds of the states will be removed from major parts of Obamacare. For the Court to rule otherwise, it will have to ignore precedent and go fully political. That sort of ruling has happened in the past, but each time it has done major damage to the Court as an institution. Hopefully, there will be a unanimous decision or at least one that gets to 8 to 1.
2. In the Middle East, the fight against ISIS may expand to draw in the Israelis. ISIS and al Qaeda are putting Syria's large Druse communities in the crosshairs. If the attacks occur, the Israel Defense Forces may intervene. It would jumble an already confused situation.
3. The talks with Iran over its nuclear program are scheduled to be concluded before the end of the month. The most likely outcome here is a postponement of the date in order to give the Iranians time to come up with a new list of concessions they can demand from president Obama.
4. The talks between Greece and the EU are also supposed to come to a conclusion. So far, the possibility of a Grexit has been more like a chronic disease than a crisis. That could change in the next few days.
Of course, it is most likely that there will be something else that will grab the media's attention. Reality will still be out there though, and it may not be all that pretty.
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