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Sunday, June 28, 2015

The Triumph of Bernie Sanders?

For some reason, there are a number of articles this weekend about Bernie Sanders (or "old BS") and his possible victory in the Democratic nomination battle with Hillary Clinton (or 'more old BS").  It's a funny topic to consider.  Will an extremely old independent socialist from Vermont beat an old woman with no fixed political opinions from Illinois, Arkansas, New York, and (most importantly) DC?  Just asking the question is enough; the answer does not really matter.

Seriously, Sanders has managed to break through the wall that surrounds Hillary and affect her even though she won't speak to him or the press or the people.  Seriously, does anyone think that Hillary would even have taken her belated and half-hearted position on the free trade bills if Bernie weren't out there winning hearts and minds among Democrats on the subject.  I mean Hillary spent years praising the Trans Pacific Partnership as "the gold standard" of trade deals (her words, not mine).  Now she's suddenly against it?  Really?  Even for a woman who will say anything for political gain, that's a big flip-flop.  That's also a big victory for Sanders.

The schemers who surround Hillary (excuse me, political strategists) actually seem worried about Sanders. It is true that Bernie is drawing huge crowds while Hillary has to prescreen folks to find four to sit at a kitchen table with her.  He is also closing on her in the polls, but so are all the Republicans.  The real problem is that the Democrats who actually vote in a caucus or primary are his people, not hers.  The schemers know that Hillary could actually lose Iowa and New Hampshire.  Indeed, they know that if Sanders comes close, it will be portrayed as a loss for Hillary.  There's nothing quite like starting out a campaign based upon the candidate's "inevitability" and not much else by losing the first two contests.

The funny thing is that Hillary is stuck with a major problem.  If she and her brain trust of schemers decide to use some of her cash to nuke Bernie Sanders with a barrage of the usual negative stuff, there is a real question whether that move will hurt Hillary more than Bernie.  She will cement herself into the consciousness of America as a nasty, negative, vindictive candidate who will do anything to win.  By using her considerable power against a guy who is clearly speaking honestly and who does not care about the consequences of his honesty, Hillary will make herself the evil queen fighting Snow White Sanders.  (Okay, his hair is snow white, isn't it?)  On the other hand, if Hillary ignores Bernie, she may lose.  Strangely, that means that she has only one choice left:  she has to engage Sanders on the issues.  But, to beat Sanders on the issues among Democrat primary voters, Hillary has to move further to the left, and that is a move that few in that base will actually believe to be true.  Even more problematical for Hillary, if she makes the move further left, the regular people who form the majority on election day won't particularly like what she has to say.






 

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