The news today is that Joe Biden is about to join in the presidential race for 2020. In addition, the Democrat governor of Washington Jay Inslee. Inslee says his main issue will be dealing with climate change. Biden hasn't said what the focus of his campaign will be, but to be fair, he may have forgotten what it is. Right now, Biden seems satisfied that he can remember where he put his keys.
It seems sad that a loser like Biden could see himself get the nomination just because of a combination of name recognition and the party rules. After the DNC and Hillary rigged the process in 2016 to defeat Bernie Sanders, the party was forced to change the rules. Under the DNC rules, each state must award convention delegates in proportion to the number of votes obtained by a candidate in a caucus or primary. However, in order to get any delegates, the candidate has to obtain at least 15% of the caucus/primary vote. This makes sense if there are three or four candidates. If the results of the primary are candidate A gets 45% of the vote, B gets 34% and C gets 21%, then the delegates are awarded 45%, 34% and 21% respectively. But what happens if there are 25 candidates and candidate A gets 16% while the other 84% is split in smaller numbers among the rest? The answer is that A gets 100% of the delegates. And what happens if the leader gets only 14% of the vote? In that case, all the delegates selected are uncommitted. They can vote for whomever they want.
The problem for most of the Democrat candidates is that they will have real trouble getting over 15% in the early races. Who can get over 15% in Iowa? The answer is basically the two ancient ones: Biden and Sanders. Unless one of the candidates actually catches fire and stands out -- which seems unlikely given the horde that is running -- the Iowa caucus may well be decided by the votes of poorly informed voters who just remember Biden and Bernie from the past. The bulk of the voters will want someone else, but Biden could take this because of the 15% minimum in the rules. New Hampshire may turn out the same way. At that point, unless a large number of candidates drop out, we could get to Super Tuesday with a very fragmented election still the result.
Right now, both Biden and Bernie have small followings among Democrats. The key, however, is that when asked whether they prefer a familiar name or someone new as a candidate, Democrat voters say they want someone new by a margin of more than two to one. They may want someone new, but the rules will just bring another old retread.
It seems sad that a loser like Biden could see himself get the nomination just because of a combination of name recognition and the party rules. After the DNC and Hillary rigged the process in 2016 to defeat Bernie Sanders, the party was forced to change the rules. Under the DNC rules, each state must award convention delegates in proportion to the number of votes obtained by a candidate in a caucus or primary. However, in order to get any delegates, the candidate has to obtain at least 15% of the caucus/primary vote. This makes sense if there are three or four candidates. If the results of the primary are candidate A gets 45% of the vote, B gets 34% and C gets 21%, then the delegates are awarded 45%, 34% and 21% respectively. But what happens if there are 25 candidates and candidate A gets 16% while the other 84% is split in smaller numbers among the rest? The answer is that A gets 100% of the delegates. And what happens if the leader gets only 14% of the vote? In that case, all the delegates selected are uncommitted. They can vote for whomever they want.
The problem for most of the Democrat candidates is that they will have real trouble getting over 15% in the early races. Who can get over 15% in Iowa? The answer is basically the two ancient ones: Biden and Sanders. Unless one of the candidates actually catches fire and stands out -- which seems unlikely given the horde that is running -- the Iowa caucus may well be decided by the votes of poorly informed voters who just remember Biden and Bernie from the past. The bulk of the voters will want someone else, but Biden could take this because of the 15% minimum in the rules. New Hampshire may turn out the same way. At that point, unless a large number of candidates drop out, we could get to Super Tuesday with a very fragmented election still the result.
Right now, both Biden and Bernie have small followings among Democrats. The key, however, is that when asked whether they prefer a familiar name or someone new as a candidate, Democrat voters say they want someone new by a margin of more than two to one. They may want someone new, but the rules will just bring another old retread.
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