With the death of the Russia collusion narrative as a result of the Mueller Report, we ought to consider where things stand for the Democrats over the next two years and in the 2020 elections.
Right now, the Democrats have only a few positions of importance. In order of importance these positions are as follows:
1. Trump is bad.
2. Trump is bad.
3. Trump is bad.
4. We're not Trump.
5. The world is ending due to climate change so we are going to destroy the economy to "fight" climate change although the drastic steps we propose won't really affect the climate.
6. America ought to have open borders so that people from around the world can swamp us and ensure continuing Democrat victories.
7. The USA should remedy the difficulties with healthcare experienced by less than 10% of our population by making sure that everyone (except for the truly wealthy) has poor healthcare.
8. Things like college, student loans, and a basic income should be given freely to everyone. The cost will be paid by just printing money. It will destroy anything left of the US economy, but since the world is ending due to climate change, we don't care about that.
This may seem like a one-sided view of what the Democrats are pushing, but it really isn't. If you think about it, there's very little, if any, exaggeration in the above list.
So, can the Democrats win on this message in 2020? Can they actually have a debate among their candidates in the primaries where most of them push one or another of the above message? Even four years ago, these would have seemed like bizarre questions, but the Democrats have moved so far left in those four years, that we actually need to seriously consider those questions.
Here's the first answer: If the 2020 election is fought by the Democrats on any of their actual positions rather than their opposition to Trump, there is no way they can win. If the country does not experience major economic problems or an international crisis, the Mueller Report makes it very close to impossible for the Democrats winning even on their opposition to Trump. Now, Trump could always defeat himself, but he seems to have avoided that for now. To go further, the 2020 election could be so one-sided in favor of Trump that the House will flip back to the Republicans and their Senate majority will increase by at least 3 seats.
The second question -- about the primary battle -- has a more complex answer. Normally, primaries are times during which various factions are energized and then they coalesce around a candidate who gets their full support. The primaries for 2020, however, are likely to split the Dems from a big chunk of their normal voters, particularly if it is fought on the current issues being pushed by the party. How many members of the UAW will support a party that wants to destroy the automobile industry? How many aircraft workers will support a party that wants to end air travel? How many oil and gas workers will support a party that wants to destroy their industry? These are not idle questions. Look at the example of West Virginia. It was one of the most Democrat states in the country not long ago. Then the Democrats declared war on coal, the principal industry in the state. In 2016, President Trump won West Virginia by a bigger margin than any other state. In Michigan, there are still large numbers of auto workers. Trump won that state by a tiny margin in 2016. If the auto workers and their families vote for the preservation of their jobs, the Trump margin in 2020 will soar. Trump also won Pennsylvania by a small margin in 2016. Pennsylvania is the second largest producer of natural gas in the USA. Hundreds of thousands of jobs in that state depend on the oil/gas industry. If those voters flip towards Trump, it will be hard for any Democrat to carry the state. Every day that the primary battles continue in the Democrat party and these positions get repeated, the Dems will be driving voters away rather than drawing them in.
Then there are the other, secondary issues that also upset the Democrat base. Look at the rising anti-Semitism among Democrats that the party leaders won't even condemn. How will Jews who seem to vote Democrat out of religious conviction react to this in 2020. For those who argue that the Dems are just anti-Israel and not anti-Semitic, nothing changes with regard to 2020. A huge chunk of the Jewish community views Israel as a very important issue. If the anti-Israel animus of candidates like Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris and brings about a candidate who is viewed as anti-Israel, that could swing 25% of the Jewish vote to avoid voting Democrat. That might lock in a Republican victory in Florida where Jews are one of the mainstays of that state's Democrat party.
There's more, but the point is clear. If the Democrats fight their primary battle as a contest in which each candidate tries to be the one furthest to the loony left, they may suffer a catastrophic defeat in 2020. They may also shift the electoral coalitions in this country for years to come. Imagine union workers overwhelmingly supporting Republicans. Imagine Jews moving towards the GOP. I didn't discuss it above, but imagine African Americans moving to even a 20% vote for the Republicans. Were this to happen, it would make it nearly impossible for the Democrats to win the White House.
Right now, the Democrats have only a few positions of importance. In order of importance these positions are as follows:
1. Trump is bad.
2. Trump is bad.
3. Trump is bad.
4. We're not Trump.
5. The world is ending due to climate change so we are going to destroy the economy to "fight" climate change although the drastic steps we propose won't really affect the climate.
6. America ought to have open borders so that people from around the world can swamp us and ensure continuing Democrat victories.
7. The USA should remedy the difficulties with healthcare experienced by less than 10% of our population by making sure that everyone (except for the truly wealthy) has poor healthcare.
8. Things like college, student loans, and a basic income should be given freely to everyone. The cost will be paid by just printing money. It will destroy anything left of the US economy, but since the world is ending due to climate change, we don't care about that.
This may seem like a one-sided view of what the Democrats are pushing, but it really isn't. If you think about it, there's very little, if any, exaggeration in the above list.
So, can the Democrats win on this message in 2020? Can they actually have a debate among their candidates in the primaries where most of them push one or another of the above message? Even four years ago, these would have seemed like bizarre questions, but the Democrats have moved so far left in those four years, that we actually need to seriously consider those questions.
Here's the first answer: If the 2020 election is fought by the Democrats on any of their actual positions rather than their opposition to Trump, there is no way they can win. If the country does not experience major economic problems or an international crisis, the Mueller Report makes it very close to impossible for the Democrats winning even on their opposition to Trump. Now, Trump could always defeat himself, but he seems to have avoided that for now. To go further, the 2020 election could be so one-sided in favor of Trump that the House will flip back to the Republicans and their Senate majority will increase by at least 3 seats.
The second question -- about the primary battle -- has a more complex answer. Normally, primaries are times during which various factions are energized and then they coalesce around a candidate who gets their full support. The primaries for 2020, however, are likely to split the Dems from a big chunk of their normal voters, particularly if it is fought on the current issues being pushed by the party. How many members of the UAW will support a party that wants to destroy the automobile industry? How many aircraft workers will support a party that wants to end air travel? How many oil and gas workers will support a party that wants to destroy their industry? These are not idle questions. Look at the example of West Virginia. It was one of the most Democrat states in the country not long ago. Then the Democrats declared war on coal, the principal industry in the state. In 2016, President Trump won West Virginia by a bigger margin than any other state. In Michigan, there are still large numbers of auto workers. Trump won that state by a tiny margin in 2016. If the auto workers and their families vote for the preservation of their jobs, the Trump margin in 2020 will soar. Trump also won Pennsylvania by a small margin in 2016. Pennsylvania is the second largest producer of natural gas in the USA. Hundreds of thousands of jobs in that state depend on the oil/gas industry. If those voters flip towards Trump, it will be hard for any Democrat to carry the state. Every day that the primary battles continue in the Democrat party and these positions get repeated, the Dems will be driving voters away rather than drawing them in.
Then there are the other, secondary issues that also upset the Democrat base. Look at the rising anti-Semitism among Democrats that the party leaders won't even condemn. How will Jews who seem to vote Democrat out of religious conviction react to this in 2020. For those who argue that the Dems are just anti-Israel and not anti-Semitic, nothing changes with regard to 2020. A huge chunk of the Jewish community views Israel as a very important issue. If the anti-Israel animus of candidates like Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris and brings about a candidate who is viewed as anti-Israel, that could swing 25% of the Jewish vote to avoid voting Democrat. That might lock in a Republican victory in Florida where Jews are one of the mainstays of that state's Democrat party.
There's more, but the point is clear. If the Democrats fight their primary battle as a contest in which each candidate tries to be the one furthest to the loony left, they may suffer a catastrophic defeat in 2020. They may also shift the electoral coalitions in this country for years to come. Imagine union workers overwhelmingly supporting Republicans. Imagine Jews moving towards the GOP. I didn't discuss it above, but imagine African Americans moving to even a 20% vote for the Republicans. Were this to happen, it would make it nearly impossible for the Democrats to win the White House.
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