It's nearly two years until the presidential election in 2020, but with the thundering horde of Democrat candidates growing by the hour, it's worth taking a look at them to ask a very basic question: which of these people could actually win? I don't mean win the nomination; I mean which of them could beat Donald Trump?
Now, any analysis of this sort has to start with the major caveat that events between now and election day will have enormous impact, so we have to assume that things stay much as they are now. That means:
1. The economy stays strong with very low unemployment, record low unemployment for minorities, and more job openings than people to fill them.
2. No foreign wars get started, ISIS is completely wiped out, and Afghanistan moves toward peace.
3. A beneficial trade deal with China is reached and approved in Congress.
4. The battle over the border wall moves to an inevitable approval by the Supreme Court of the President's declaration of a national emergency pursuant to the powers granted to him by Congress.
5. No evidence exists which shows any "collusion" between Russia and the Trump campaign in 2016.
In this atmosphere, the number of Democrats who could possibly win is very low. Think about it; could anyone who has endorsed the Green New Deal actually win a national election? Remember, the election comes only after a campaign. Polls have shown that many Americans support the Green New Deal when they hear that it is meant to save the planet from climate change. When told that the Green New Deal includes measures that would end or severely curtail air travel and private automobile usage, stop consumption of meat and dairy products, and provide support to those who are unwilling to work, that support collapses to fewer than one in five. A Trump campaign would focus on this relentlessly, and it would move millions of votes away from Democrats like Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren.
Similarly, the support by a candidate for open borders and abolishment of ICE would deal a body blow to his or her prospects. There are varying degrees of support for the Trump border wall, but at the same time, there is huge majority support for enforcement of secure borders and fair immigration laws.
Then there's the effect of what is soon to be a major battle between the candidates and among the various interest groups that make up the Democrats. Just watching AOC or Ilhan Omar denounce the "old" leadership of the House illustrates the fault lines that are only going to grow as each of the candidates denounce the others. Sure, there may be some well behaved candidates who refrain from attacks, but with 349 candidates, there will surely be some who go for the jugular of their opponents. It's safe to say that things like Elizabeth Warren's sortee into the DNA battlelines will be the subject of discussion and even outrage as the campaign proceeds. So too will the name change by Robert Francis O'Rourke who tried to become Hispanic by pretending his name is Beto. At the end of the primary campaign, the diehard Democrat base will be ready to coalesce to beat the President, but that is always the case. The real issue is what impact this impending food fight will have on the votes of independents and marginal Democrats. Will the endless fighting move them to either not voting or going with Trump or Schultz (if he runs as expected.) Remember, in 2016, the Republicans had the Never Trumpers who basically were GOP affiliated voters who were so turned off by the Trump performance in the primaries that they didn't vote for him.
Right now, the only Democrats who seems to have a chance to win is Joe Biden. His problem, of course, is that he is still Joe Biden. As the voice of center/left reason, he might be able to keep the Democrats from totally dissolving, but he's just so old and tired that it's hard to imagine him building up much excitement. He's like the Democrat version of Bob Dole in 1996.
The truth is that I just don't see any Democrat beating Trump as of now.
Now, any analysis of this sort has to start with the major caveat that events between now and election day will have enormous impact, so we have to assume that things stay much as they are now. That means:
1. The economy stays strong with very low unemployment, record low unemployment for minorities, and more job openings than people to fill them.
2. No foreign wars get started, ISIS is completely wiped out, and Afghanistan moves toward peace.
3. A beneficial trade deal with China is reached and approved in Congress.
4. The battle over the border wall moves to an inevitable approval by the Supreme Court of the President's declaration of a national emergency pursuant to the powers granted to him by Congress.
5. No evidence exists which shows any "collusion" between Russia and the Trump campaign in 2016.
In this atmosphere, the number of Democrats who could possibly win is very low. Think about it; could anyone who has endorsed the Green New Deal actually win a national election? Remember, the election comes only after a campaign. Polls have shown that many Americans support the Green New Deal when they hear that it is meant to save the planet from climate change. When told that the Green New Deal includes measures that would end or severely curtail air travel and private automobile usage, stop consumption of meat and dairy products, and provide support to those who are unwilling to work, that support collapses to fewer than one in five. A Trump campaign would focus on this relentlessly, and it would move millions of votes away from Democrats like Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren.
Similarly, the support by a candidate for open borders and abolishment of ICE would deal a body blow to his or her prospects. There are varying degrees of support for the Trump border wall, but at the same time, there is huge majority support for enforcement of secure borders and fair immigration laws.
Then there's the effect of what is soon to be a major battle between the candidates and among the various interest groups that make up the Democrats. Just watching AOC or Ilhan Omar denounce the "old" leadership of the House illustrates the fault lines that are only going to grow as each of the candidates denounce the others. Sure, there may be some well behaved candidates who refrain from attacks, but with 349 candidates, there will surely be some who go for the jugular of their opponents. It's safe to say that things like Elizabeth Warren's sortee into the DNA battlelines will be the subject of discussion and even outrage as the campaign proceeds. So too will the name change by Robert Francis O'Rourke who tried to become Hispanic by pretending his name is Beto. At the end of the primary campaign, the diehard Democrat base will be ready to coalesce to beat the President, but that is always the case. The real issue is what impact this impending food fight will have on the votes of independents and marginal Democrats. Will the endless fighting move them to either not voting or going with Trump or Schultz (if he runs as expected.) Remember, in 2016, the Republicans had the Never Trumpers who basically were GOP affiliated voters who were so turned off by the Trump performance in the primaries that they didn't vote for him.
Right now, the only Democrats who seems to have a chance to win is Joe Biden. His problem, of course, is that he is still Joe Biden. As the voice of center/left reason, he might be able to keep the Democrats from totally dissolving, but he's just so old and tired that it's hard to imagine him building up much excitement. He's like the Democrat version of Bob Dole in 1996.
The truth is that I just don't see any Democrat beating Trump as of now.
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