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Wednesday, June 15, 2011

More on Sunspots (or should I say less?)

The news that the sun appears to be going into a period of minimal sunspot activity has led to the expected reporting. I have seen two articles that explain that the last period of minimal sunspot activity which was in the 18th century corresponded to the so-called little ice age. During that period, the climate was significantly cooler than now. Various rivers that had not previously frozen were ice covered for much of the winter. Snow fields remained at lower elevations. In short, it was cold. A few other articles explained that any cooling coming from sunspot reduction would not be enough to overcome the warming that manmade activity would be causing. Supposedly, the global warming trend would be three times greater than the cooling caused by the sunspot decline.

The truth is that no one could possibly know for certain what will happen. We do know that an absence of sunspots will cause the Earth to be cooler than it otherwise would be. Indeed, it may be enough to cause significant problems due to cooling. Until we know for how long the minimum lasts, however, the full extent of the cooling cannot be determined.

It makes great sense for there to be serious study of the effect of the sunspot minimum right now. It would be much better to use actual science to come up with the best possible answers rather than to let this become a poltical issue mixed into the global warming mess. The world could be facing serious trouble, and it would be nice to know that as soon as possible. Of course, wanting science and the good of the country and the world to triumph over ideology is probably something that will have to wair for a change of administration in Washington.

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