I always enjoy reading what Peter Beinart writes in the Daily Beast; he never fails to come up with something that no one in his right mind could believe. Today's column explains why the economy won't do in the Obama re=election campaign.
Beinart's current take on where the economy will be at election time is this: "The best bet is that when voters go to the polls next fall the economy won’t be in free fall, as it was when Obama took office. But neither will it have turned the corner. For most Americans, it will have been lousy for as long as Barack Obama was president, and there will be no tangible evidence that it will get any better in his second term."
So there you have it. The economy will be stagnant with no indication of imminent improvement when America votes. Yet, Beinart believes that Obama is a sure thing for re-election, why? Beinart's answer: all the GOP candidates are flawed! And Beinart points to the 2004 election to prove that a candidate who the people like can be re-elected even if things are not going well.
It never fails to amaze me how people rewrite history. Beinart says that Bush made the race into Bush vs. Kerry rather than a referendum on the Bush presidency. Supposedly, that was through a smart campaign. Of course, that analysis totally misses the point. In 2004, the key issue was the war on terror and foreign policy. That was an area in which the American people had great confidence in Bush. Sure, there were those on the other side, but as of November 2004, people were satisfied with Bush's handling of American security. Kerry tried to take that away from Bush; do you remember the convention where Kerry and his supporters spent days talking about his servie in Vietnam? Kerry's background as an anti-war big shot in the 1970's was always lurking in the background. Americans needed to be made secure that Kerry was up to the national security part of the job. And Kerry's attempts to do that blew up in his face when the swift boat crews came forward and pointed out the lies in his campaign statements. Kerry never recovered from that. So in 2004, Bush clearly won on the key issue of the day.
In 2012, the key issue will almost certainly be the economy. Obama will not win on that issue if conditions are as Beinart expects. Indeed, the Republicans need only nominate a candidate who is satisfactory on this issue and who otherwise does not implode to win in that event. So the GOP candidate will need to project competence in dealing with the economy. He or she will need to have a plan that can be explained in general terms. It can be as simple as ending the Obama policies that have failed so miserably. Imagine, for example, Tim Pawlenty pushing for lower energy prices through more domestic production and shifts to different sources of power, less regulation on business, a reorganization of the business tax levels in the US, maybe even a change to a business consumption tax from a business income tax (a move that would cut imports and spur exports in a major way). Pawlenty could explain the merits of these moves -- or he appears to be able to do so. What would Obama's answer be? Maybe his slogan could be "He kept Guantanamo open!" NO, that wouldn't do. How about "Gas prices only doubled!" NO, that would be a failure as well. How about "9% unemployment is no big whoop!" That's my favorite. It showcases economic incompetence with a true disregard for the suffering of Americans.
Yesterday, I asked people to leave comments telling me about something that Obama had done right that helped America -- other than the bin Laden shooting which any president would have done. From the hundreds of folks who read that post, I got one comment from a reader who said that "democrat friends" tell her that he helped them with regard to healthcare. So, Obamacare was the big winner? Simply put, if Obama makes Obamacare the center of his campaign, this could be the biggest rout since 1984.
The truth is that Obama won't even make a great former ex-president, but it is a job he is much better suited to do.
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