I read polls all the time. Some are encouraging and some not so. Some seem slanted and some unbiased. For the most part, however, the polls are not really meaningful at this point in the process. They do show trends, but the trends can changed. Today, however, brought a poll that does more than just show a trend in my opinion.
Muhlenberg College did a poll of voters in Pennsylvania that gave these results: Obama's job approval in PA is at 35%. In a race agianst a generic Republican in Pennsylvania, Obama is at 36%, the Republican is at 31% and 31% say it will depend on who the GOP nominates. Finally, by a margin of 73 to 23, Pennsylvania voters say that Obama's policies have either hurt the country (41%) or made no difference (32%) rather than helping.
These results are an earthquake for the Obama White House. First, let's state the obvious. There is no way that Obama wins re-election without Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania has twenty electoral votes, the fifth largest amount. Ohio which is much like Pennsylvania except about 5% more Republican will never vote for Obama if he looses PA. Nor will Florida or North Carolina. In other words, the PA numbers are a symptom of a much larger phenomenon, one that will move enough votes to the GOP column to drive Obama from the White House. Think of it this way: Pennsylvania leans towards the Democrats for presidential votes; elections may be close, but the Democrats have an advantage. The last time that Pennsylvania voted for a Republican while a Democrat won the White House was in 1948, 63 years ago. In other words, if the GOP takes PA, it is almost a given that Obama will lose.
That is why these latest poll numbers are so striking. Fully 31% of the electorate wants only to see if the GOP candidate is acceptable before deciding which way to vote. Obama has the support of only 36% in Pennsylvania even though a large majority of the registered voters in the state are Democrats. Amazing!
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