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Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Perhaps the biggest hidden item in the debt deal -- Obamacare may be repealed

I was reading coverage of the debt debate compromise, and I came across this extremely important excerpt from Powerline: "One of the diabolical aspects of the debt bill is that budgets for FY 2012 and 2013 will be “deemed” to be in effect, even though in fact, no budget will be proposed, reviewed in committee, debated or adopted. Will that make President Obama the first chief executive to serve an entire term without ever having a budget in place?"

For those who love the arcane workings of the federal budget process, this is newsworthy. But, it is not the big news here. If this is correct, there will be a budget deemed to be in place for the next two fiscal years, and that may well mean the end of Obamacare. Let me explain. If the Republicans beat Obama in 2012 and take a majority in the Senate, they are unlikely to get a 60 vote majority in the Senate. That would need a pick up of 13 seats in one election, a shift that is almost impossible. A group of 41 or more Democrats could fillibuster any attempt to repeal Obamacare and thwart the GOP plan to get rid of that law. Recall, however, that Obamacare ultimately passed the Senate through a process called reconciliation which does not permit there to be a fillibuster. Under the Senate rules, however, reconciliation can only be used if there is a budget in place. Senate Democrats have not passed a budget for three years. They would have no problem preventing passage of a budget in 2013 which would have prevented the use of reconciliation. Now, that tool is taken from them. In other words, the bar for repeal of Obamacare just went from winning the presidency plus 60 votes in the senate to only needing the presidency and 51 votes.

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