Quinipiac is out today with polling that matches president Obama against possible GOP challengers in Pennsylvania. The results show Mitt Romney leading Obama by 44-42%. Obama leads both Bachmann and Perry, but he gets only 45% of the vote against the Texas governor and 47% against Bachmann. These are staggering figures for the Democrats.
First of all, the sample for the poll was registered voters. Using registered voters rather than likely voters normally leads to better results for the Democrats. Losing to Romney with this sample means that were there actually an election tomorrow, Romney would be about 6 or 7 % ahead.
Second, Pennsylvania is normally a blue state in presidential politics. Every four years it is named a "battleground", and then it votes reliably for the Democrat. Trailing in Pennsylvania is a very bad incidator for Obama.
Third, Bachmann is the kind of strong conservative who normally will not play well in Pennsylvania. The fact that Obama cannot even muster a majority against her is another sign that Obama is on very shaky ground in the Keystone State.
Obviously, we are well over a year until the election and much can and will change before then. Nevertheless, it must be keeping folks up at night at the White House to see a must win state like Pennsylvania slipping away.
No comments:
Post a Comment