According to news reports this morning, the European Union is about to impose an embargo on new contracts for Iranian oil. This will constitute a slow reduction in sales from Iran to Europe and it will end with a total cutoff. Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation.
Let's put this into context. In the last day, the USA moved another carrier battlegroup into the Persian Gulf along with warships of France and the UK. Any attempt by Iran to close the strait will bring an immediate response by the Western navies. In other words, this is an extremely tense and dangerous situation. But wait, it gets worse. Iran is supposed to have a fair number of anti-ship missiles. One has to assume that if the mullahs close the Strait of Hormuz, they will understand that a counterattack is coming quickly. They may well decide to use their missiles before the weapons get destroyed on the ground. Does the Abraham Lincoln (the US carrier) have the ability to shoot down 15 missiles fired at it simultaneously? How about 30 missiles? I know that these ships have anti-missile defenses, but I am not sure that these defenses are impregnable. What will happen if one of these missiles gets through and actually hits the carrier or the Bitish destroyer or the French frigate?
Right now we are still in the stage where countries are staring each other down. Fortunately, the lead here is being taken by the European Union. I would hate to see president Obama taking the lead in this kind of showdown. We need someone with nerve and a steady hand, not someone who will throw in the towel at the first sign of trouble.
Let us all pray that the situation does not get worse and that peace prevails.
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