Search This Blog

Monday, January 23, 2012

Is this the end of Romney?

According to news reports, Mitt Romney told a crowd today in Florida 1)Newt Gingrich is a failure as a leader who had to "resign in disgrace" from the speakership; 2)Gingrich was reprimanded by the House with 88% of Republicans voting for that outcome, so Newt was a failed leader; and 3)for the last 15 years, Gingrich has been selling influence as a lobbyist in Washington. The attacks seem to me to be a mark of despair by Romney; they may even signal the end of Romney's chances to capture the nomination. Let me explain:

First, it is very unusual for the candidate himself to deliver such negative attacks. Only those candidates who are best described as vicious or total losers do so. Think of Pat Buchanan as a good example of the former and Rick Perry as a good example of the latter. Delivering such attacks make the candidate look mean spirited, and it is likely to turn off a significant portion of the electorate. In Iowa, there were substantial attacks on Gingrich, but they came from the Romney PAC, so Romney could claim that he had no involvement with them. Second, it is critical that if one lets fly with a negative attack that one has the facts correct. Romney is clearly streching some facts and creating others. Gingrich did resign as the Speaker, but it is hard to say that he resigned in disgrace. There were well over 100 charges made by the Democrats against Gingrich in the ethics investigation; all but one were dismissed. For the last one, Gingrich agreed to a reprimand and to pay back the cost of the investigation. He never agreed, however, that he had done anything wrong. So if 88% of the Republicans voted for this outcome, they did so with the agreement of Gingrich himself. After the vote in Congress, the entire matter was investigated by two different agencies, including the Justice Department, and both concluded that Gingrich had done nothing wrong. Remember, this was the Clinton Justice Department, a federal department that would have liked nothing better than to strike a blow against the Republican Speaker. Finally, over the last 15 years, Gingrich has written about ten best selling books, produced seven full length films, run three different private companies together with his wife and participated in a whole host of organizations designed to promote new ideas in government. No one could honestly say with a straight face that Gingrich spent his time as a lobbyist. Indeed, no one could even say that he devoted a substantial portion of his time to such an endeavor.

So Romney is basically 0 for 3 in his charges. It makes him look low and less than honest. Strangely, this may give Gingrich the chance to have yet another of those moments that have propelled him to the front of the pack. Surely, the Romney attack was designed so that it will be mentioned in tonight's debate. We shall have to wait to see what happens, but my money is on Gingrich to use this effectively against Romney.

No comments: