It did not take long for the networks to call the South Carolina primary for Newt Gingrich. I think the word was out within 5 seconds after the polls closed. In other words, it is a big, big win. It is also a truly amazing win. Think of it this way: Gingrich's campaign was considered dead last May. Most of the staff left and went to work for that rising star Rick Perry. Money was tight and Gingrich had put his foot in his mouth by statements made about Paul Ryan's Medicare plan. Then we watched the other candidates basically blow up. Bachmann disappeared under the Perry onslaught (although she certainly helped bring herself down with her campaign.) Perry rose high and fell quickly once he opened his mouth in public. Herman Cain and his 9-9-9 plan became a sensation, but then he fell apart once it became clear that he knew essentially nothing about foreign policy and all those women came forward. Through it all, Romney continued with his quarter of the votes. Then it was Gingrich's turn to rise. He soared ahead and then got hit with an avalanche of negative ads. His numbers tanked. Newt finished far from the lead in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Indeed, in Iowa so many who had supported Gingrich in December mover to Santorum in January, that Rick Santorum won the state. Newt had peaked and then fallen quickly.
That's where things were when the race got to South Carolina ten days ago. Now it is true that Gingrich has the advantage of being from Georgia and being the only "local" candidate. That was enough to keep Newt in the race at the start. It was the debates, however, that propelled Gingrich to the front and which pushed Romney from the lead. Think of those debates. Gingrich connected with the Republican base by unashamedly stating the essence of the Republican belief in the value of work and self-reliance when he was questioned with the typical liberal question by Juan Williams. Over and over again, Gingrich strongly supported the Republican narrative for the country. Romney, however, looked unprepared and stumbled in answering questions about his taxes and Bain Capital. That was only the first debate, but Gingrich moved up rapidly in the polls.
Next came the ABC interview with Marianne Gingrich, Newt's second wife. If statements from some anonymous women and some unsubstantiated claims had brought down Herman Cain, just think what the interview of the scorned ex-wife would do. The people at ABC must have been salivating at the thought of Newt Gingrich being eaten alive. But it was not to be. Instead, John King of CNN actually began the second debate with a question about Marianne Gingrich before the interview had even appeared on ABC. Newt got the opportunity to take on the role of a knight on a quest to slay the dragon which is liberal media bias. It is a dragon that is most hated by the Republican base. Newt actually became stronger in South Carolina because his ex-wife had tried to take him down. And Romney, who should have been ready, was indecisive and shift again on the tax return question.
How can it be that Gingrich has actually won? He should have lost after his campaign fell apart last May. He should have lost when all the other candidates soared. He should have lost when his campaign was smashed by the tsunami of negative advertising from Romney and his PAC. He should have lost when his ex-wife said he asked for an open marriage. Simply put, he should have lost. But conventional wisdom in politics is just that: conventional. And not everything goes as expected. That is particularly true when those who are "expecting" are pundits who always seem to be seeing everything through the lens of the last campaign.
Gingrich may not win another contest or he may sweep most of the remaining primaries and grab the nomination. The real wisdom is that we simply do not know if either of these will happen. Who knows, by next summer maybe the GOP will nominate someone not even in the race yet. It is hard to tell the future, but at least we know it is going to be exciting to watch it unfold.
No comments:
Post a Comment