The Straits of Hormuz

On Thursday, the Christian Science Monitor ran a story by Scott Peterson (who I assume is not the convicted murderer) discussing how Iran could defeat the US military in the event of conflict in the Persian Gulf. It was the kind of analysis that only an academic or a rigid ideologue could set forth. According to Peterson, the Iranians could use "swarming" tactics to hit the US navy together with mines and small subs. Swarming tactics involve sending hundreds of small boats after a much larger ship all at once. The sheer numbers of small boats will overwhelm the larger target. Peterson announces that the American response will need to be somewhat limited in order to "avoid" a war. I am not kidding; this guy thinks that hundreds of small boats together with subs and mines will attack western shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and there will not be a war. What will all those small boats be doing when they attack an aircraft carrier? Will it be an act of peace? Maybe it will just be a protest.

There is no question that an initial attack by the Iranians with the use of swarming technics might achieve some success against an American navy that was not yet on war footing. After the first attack, however, it is hard to imagine Iran being able to mount any successful defense, and by a month later, there would be no way the Iranians would be able to do much of anything.

There is also no question that for some time, the Straits of Hormuz would be affected, but this would end after a few months. At that point, the threat would have been neutralized. Indeed, the Iranians know that fighting the USA is akin to national suicide, or more precisely regime suicide for the mullahs. That is why nothing has happened to date.