There is a very interesting poll out today regarding the presidential race in the state of Pennsylvania. The Keystone state is a critical part of the Obama re-election campaign. In simple terms, if Romney wins in Pennsylvania, he will surely win the election. Today's poll, however, finds the race sitting at 47 to 42 percent in favor of the president. This is bad news for Obama. Let me explain.
First of all, the poll was taken almost completely prior to the Ryan announcement, so it does not have any bounce from that in its numbers.
Second, the poll is of registered voters. This means that the actual vote would likely be about 2 to 3 percent better for the GOP. That would put the poll at something like 45 to 43 in favor of Obama among likely voters.
Third, Obama had a 12% lead the last time this same polling organization (Franklin & Marshall) did a poll a few months ago. Romney moved up a lot, but Obama also moved down.
Finally, Obama is well below 50%. This is a bad sign for an incumbent.
If there really is any bounce from Ryan and the GOP convention, we could see Romney take the lead in Pennsylvania.
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