Get Ready for Iranian forces in Syria

In a little noticed bit of news today, Iranian media reported today that a busload of 48 Iranian religious pilgrims who were in Syria to visit a holy shrine were kidnapped on their way from the airport to their destination. Despite the lack of attention, this may be an extraordinarily important bit of news.

First of all, the story is unlikely to be true. The Iranian government organization that runs pilgrimages of this sort suspended trips to Syria months ago due to the constant and escalating fighting there. We are to believe that these pilgrims organized this trip to the war zone on their own for religious purposes. Further, the rebels in Syria have not been using kidnapping as part of their uprising. Mostly, they have just been trying to stay alive in the face of the constant onslaught of the Assad forces. There is no reason why they would switch tactics suddenly and on such a large scale.

Second, this story give Iran an ostensible reason to send its forces to Syria. After all, the Iranians have to "look for" their countrymen who were supposedly kidnapped. How many Iranian troops does one need to find these 48 hostages. My guess is that the number could be in the thousands.

The Assad regime is Iran's only Arab ally. It is the conduit through which Iran send weapons to terror groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. It give Iran the ability to sidestep some of the international sanctions placed upon Iran for its nuclear program. We Assad to fall, Iran would be the biggest loser in the region. The mullahs in Teheran clearly do not want that to happen. They would like to send their own troops to Damascus to bolster the Assad forces. After all, many of the Syrian troops are squeamish about using heavy weapons against their countrymen. Thousands of Syrian troops have defected to the rebels or deserted from the army. Even officers as high up as the general staff have gone over to the other side. If the situation is not stabilized, the Assad forces may just fall from within. The presence of Iranian troops to enforce discipline may well be what is needed to keep Assad from falling. At least, that is how the mullahs in Teheran would be thinking.

Of course, were Iran just to send troops to Syria, many Syrians would be even more outraged than they already are. It would be tantamount to a foreign, non-arab, non-Sunni Muslim occupation. So the Iranians need an excuse to send their troops. What could be better than a kidnapping of poor Iranian religious pilgrims? It would be the lie that would keep on giving. With Assad controlling the media, at least some Syrians would believe the story and that just might be enough cover for Iran to act to solidify the Assad position.

I hope I am wrong, but I worry that we may soon see Iranian forces in Syria.