A Shocker Poll from PPP

For the last month or so, I have been writing about the polls done by Public Policy Polling ("PPP"). In state after state, the PPP polls always seem to run between four and six points better for the Democrats than the average of all other polls. That figure makes today's release by PPP of a Wisconsin poll all that more shocking. PPP found that in Wisconsin, among likely voters, Romney is leading Obama by 48% to 47%. That is astounding news. If accurate, it means that Wisconsin voters made a major shift from Obama to Romney after the naming of Wisconsin congressman Paul Ryan as the vice presidential candidate. Further, it means that as of now Wisconsin is in play. One cannot say that Obama cannot win without Wisconsin, but it is true that were Romney to win Wisconsin, he would have a better than even chance of victory in November.

Adding to the gloom at Obama headquarters in Chicago, a poll by another Democrat pollster was released this afternoon for Michigan. This poll of likely voters found the race in Michigan at Romney 48% and Obama 44%. It also found that in the Michigan senate race Pete Hoekstra is leading incumbent Debbie Stabenow by 2%. The polls specifically asked about the effect of the Ryan nomination and found that by a large margin Ryan made Michganders more likely to vote Republican in November. While I noted above that Obama could win if he lost Wisconsin, the same cannot be said about Michigan. If Obama goes down in Michigan, he will be returning to Illinois as a private citizen next January.

One last poll is worth mentioning. In the Massachusetts Senate Race, a poll of likely voters has Scott Brown ahead of Cherokee Liz (Elizabeth Warren) by 5%.

We are still months from the election, but the motion, at least for today, seems to be towards the GOP. Let's hope it continues.