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Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Are the polls Rigged?

I was looking at today's polling results and the disparities between polls are just enormous. In Colorado, for example, Rasmussen found a tie among likely voters and Public Policy Polling found an Obama lead of 6%. Both companies did the polls at the same time while using the same methodology. Both companies polled likely voters. Somehow, however, the Democrat pollster Public Policy Polling found a big Obama lead while Rasmussen found a tie.

This got me to thinking. I went back and looked at all of the polls in Colorado during 2012 that are reported at Real Clear Politics. The series done by Public Policy Polling found an average lead for Obama over Romney in Colorado of just under 9%. The eight polls done by companies other than Public Policy Polling found, on average, an Obama lead of 1.5%. This is not just a statistical aberration. Clearly, there is a biased introduced in the Public Policy poll that is not present in the polls done by the other five pollsters.

Just as a check, I also looked at the North Carolina results since Public Policy Polling released a poll for NC today as well. In the last six months, PPP has done seven polls in North Carolina and found an Obama lead of just under 2% on average. Twelve other polls were done in NC during the same time by five other pollsters. On average, these polls found a Romney lead of just under 2% over Obama. Once again, multiple polls by Democrat pollster PPP somehow come out with a four point advantage for Obama over the results obtained by the other polling firms.

This seemed really bad, so I checked the Florida polls since April 1. guess what, Democrat Public Policy Polling had results that on average showed things 3% better for Obama than the those found in the other 16 polls done by other firms.

The polls discussed above total about 50 different reported samples. There is simply no way that the consistent advantage that PPP finds for Obama can be statistical noise. Something more is at work. We are told over and over that those polled are selected at random and that the questions are not biased. That just does not seem to be true. I cannot tell from the numbers just how it is that the PPP polls are rigged, but I am reasonably certain that they are biased in favor of Obama.

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