The Senate Prospects for 2012

At the moment, there are 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans and 2 Independents in the senate. Since the two independents are essentially Democrats, the party split is 53 to 47 in favor of the Democrats. It is worth taking a look to see where things will likely be after the election.

The GOP has a real chance to take control of the chamber. Thirty-three seats are up for election this year and 23 are currently held by the Democrats. Republicans just need to win 14 out of 33 to take the majority; indeed, if Romney gets elected president, the GOP only needs 13 out of 33.

Out of the seats up for grabs, sixteen seem totally secure. The Democrats should retain Calofornia, Maryland, New York, Vermont, Delaware, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Washington and West Virginia and pick up a seat in Maine. (The almost certain winner is Maine is an independent who will caucus with the Democrats.) The Republicans should retain Mississippi, Texas, Wyoming, Tennessee and Utah and pick up a seat in Nebraska. That means that in this half of the races, there will be no net change in party identification.

Another batch of seats falls in the long shot category. Democrats are likely to maintain their hold on Pennsylvania and Republicans on Arizona. It would take something major for this to change. Here too, there is no modification of the party identification.

Then there are the seats where one side is clearly ahead, but things could easily change. Right now Democrats lead in New Jersey, Michigan, Hawaii, New Mexico and Connecticut. Republicans are in the lead in Missouri, North Dakota, Indiana, Nevada and Wisconsin. These results would be a pick up of four for the GOP in Missouri and Wisconsin. The state in this group most likely to change is, surprisingly, New Jersey. Senator Menendez has not been able to break above 45% support in the polls despite running against a relatively unknown Republican. Menedez has to hope for a major Obama victory in the Garden State to carry him through. The polls are also close in North Dakota, but there will be a Romney blow out victory in that state which ought to lock in a GOP win. Connecticut is another interesting race. The Democrat, Chris Murphy is a lackluster congressman who is unknown outside of his district. He is running against Linda McMahon who self funds her race and who has toned down her message after her loss two years ago to Blumenthal.

That leaves the races that either side could win. Right now, it is really too close to name a leader in Florida, Massachusetts, Montana, and Virginia. All of these states are currently Democratic except for Massachusetts. An even split would result in a one seat GOP pick up.

This could all change quickly, but at the moment, the most likely outcome in the senate seems to be a GOP majority of 52-48.